ES Setif
vs
US Biskra
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Setif 1–0 US Biskra
The model makes it 60% ES Setif, 24% draw, 16% US Biskra — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: ES Setif 1.91, US Biskra 0.73.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: ES Setif are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ES Setif are 11th on 5 points from 5 games; US Biskra are bottom on 2 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Setif are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to JS Kabylie.
- US Biskra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to MC Oran.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Setif 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2025, ended ES Setif 1–0 US Biskra.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Setif vs US Biskra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Setif at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Setif vs US Biskra
ES Setif
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
- W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
- L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026
US Biskra
- L0-1MC Oran13 October 2026
- L0-4away to CS Constantine7 October 2026
- D0-0JS Saoura22 September 2026
- L0-1CR Belouizdad17 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ben Aknoun10 September 2026
What these results say
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ES Setif had two goals or fewer.
- US Biskra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | ES Setif | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Setif vs US Biskra
- 20 June 2025ES Setif 1–0 US BiskraLigue 1
- 27 December 2024US Biskra 0–0 ES SetifLigue 1
- 26 April 2024US Biskra 2–2 ES SetifLigue 1
- 9 December 2023ES Setif 2–2 US BiskraLigue 1
- 10 February 2023ES Setif 3–1 US BiskraLigue 1
- 27 August 2022US Biskra 2–2 ES SetifLigue 1
The two sides
ES Setif carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.01 for US Biskra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for ES Setif and 0.73 for US Biskra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ES Setif rate 0.57 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; US Biskra rate 0.38 and 2.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for ES Setif against 0.73 for US Biskra. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/2.06 for US Biskra.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ES Setif at home · US Biskra away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Setif 5, US Biskra 5.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); US Biskra have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
ES Setif
- at Khenchela7 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
US Biskra
- vs MB Rouisset7 Nov · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.