Mantova vs Sampdoria Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Mantova 2-0 Sampdoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Mantova, 29% draw, 29% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mantova at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mantova vs Sampdoria
Line-ups
- 22F. BardiG
- 5B. TomaševićD
- 29S. CellaD
- 27A. CastelliniD
- 41Jonathan SilvaM
- 25L. IgnacchitiM
- 80R. KoudaM
- 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
- 8R. IlieM
- 19F. RuoccoM
- 9E. GliozziF
- 71Federico ChinettiF
- 1L. GemelloG
- 30D. BragantiniF
- 75E. KošpoD
- 58Tommaso Del LungoD
- 11I. CajazzoM
- 18S. KeitaM
- 20F. PaolettiM
- 10D. WieserM
- 1P. VindahlG
- 29A. Di PardoD
- 3S. GartenmannD
- 15F. Delli CarriD
- 7M. CicconiD
- 6L. HendersonM
- 45A. MakoumbouM
- 11T. BegićM
- 16Y. VerschaerenM
- 10L. InsigneM
- 99G. TutinoF
- 14Yann KaramohF
- 9T. LauritsenF
- 43K. MbabuD
- 25A. FerrariD
- 13L. RavanelliD
- 28O. AbildgaardM
- 12Andrey KrastevG
- 96S. MassoloG
- 20D. SinaniF
Form going into Mantova vs Sampdoria
Mantova
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Cesena6 September 2026
- W3-1Empoli30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Carrarese22 August 2026
Sampdoria
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mantova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mantova vs Sampdoria
- 21 February 2026Mantova 2–1 SampdoriaSerie B
- 2 November 2025Sampdoria 0–1 MantovaSerie B
- 25 January 2025Mantova 2–2 SampdoriaSerie B
- 27 October 2024Sampdoria 1–0 MantovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Mantova and Sampdoria
Mantova
GoalsAssists
- F. Ruocco50
Sampdoria
GoalsAssists
- L. Insigne30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mantova beat Sampdoria 2–0. The model had made a win for Mantova its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Francesco Ruocco 58' for Mantova, Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo 66' for Mantova.