13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Diriyah vs Abha Pro League prediction & result

Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Riyadh
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Al Diriyah 0-0 Abha.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Al Diriyah, 29% draw, 25% Abha — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Diriyah at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Diriyah5%Draw93%Abha2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Abdulelah Al-Malki
8'
24'
Jurien Gaari
39'
Nabil Fekir
🔁A. Al Malkiout: S. Al Farhan
46'
🔁C. Diandyout: H. Bahebri
46'
67'
🔁G. N'Koudouout: A. Gory
🔁K. A. Al Sibyani H.out: M. Hameran
69'
74'
🔁N. Fekirout: N. Al Daajani
74'
🔁K. Al Shamraniout: S. Al Johani
🔁A. Boulbinaout: M. Al Nemer
81'
🔁I. Gueyeout: H. Al Qahtani
87'
Abdulaziz Al-Faraj
89'
89'
🔁F. Al Ghamdiout: K. Al Qahtani
Meshari Fahad Al-Nemer
90+4'
90'
Abdulbaset Hindi

Match stats — Al Diriyah vs Abha

52%Possession48%
13Shots10
1On target3
7Corners1
1.35xG0.68

Goals against chances

Al Diriyah0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth
Abha0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Diriyah
  • 22N. VasiljG
  • 2A. Al FarajD
  • 99C. MbembaD
  • 19B. DjimsitiD
  • 16K. A. Al Sibyani H.D
  • 88A. Al MalkiM
  • 5I. GueyeM
  • 20E. MillotM
  • 17C. DiandyF
  • 29D. NunezF
  • 10A. BoulbinaF
Substitutes
  • 33W. AbdullahG
  • 87Q. LajamiD
  • 12T. Wadi
  • 21M. HameranD
  • 78K. Al AsiriD
  • 52H. Al QahtaniM
  • 6S. Al FarhanM
  • 11H. BahebriF
  • 75M. Al NemerF
Abha 4-5-1
  • 16D. LeonG
  • 39M. Al-ZaidD
  • 3J. GaariD
  • 37A. HindiD
  • 12K. Al ShamraniD
  • 17A. DarisiM
  • 7F. Al GhamdiM
  • 19A. Al FahadM
  • 10N. FekirM
  • 14G. N'KoudouM
  • 44M. BatshuayiF
Substitutes
  • 26M. MalayekahG
  • 66N. Al Gulaymish
  • 28B. Al MutairiM
  • 8N. Al Daajani
  • 4B. Al SayyaliM
  • 80S. Al JohaniD
  • 11A. GoryF
  • 9K. BoumedmedF
  • 20K. Al Qahtani
Coach: Damir Buric

Form going into Al Diriyah vs Abha

Al Diriyah

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
  • L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026

Abha

Pro League

  • L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Al Diriyah11434911-215
18Abha10028618-122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Al Diriyah and Abha drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Diriyah at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.68.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.