Al Diriyah
vs
Abha
Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Diriyah 0-0 Abha.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al Diriyah, 31% draw, 25% Abha — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Al Diriyah 1.44, Abha 0.82.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Al Diriyah vs Abha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Diriyah at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Diriyah vs Abha
Al Diriyah
- W2-1away to Al-Fateh9 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Qadisiyah FC3 September 2026
- W3-0away to Al-Ettifaq29 August 2026
- D1-1Al Kholood26 August 2026
Abha
- L1-2away to Al-Nassr9 September 2026
- L0-1Al-Ettifaq4 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al-Fayha28 August 2026
- D1-1Al Khaleej Saihat25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Diriyah carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.45 for Abha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Al Diriyah and 0.82 for Abha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Diriyah rate 0.65 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Abha rate 0.60 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Diriyah a 0.3% chance of the title and Abha 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Diriyah the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al Diriyah against 0.82 for Abha. Al Diriyah's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.36 for Abha.