Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood Pro League prediction & result
Final score: Al Riyadh 2-0 Al Kholood.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Al Riyadh, 28% draw, 37% Al Kholood — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Saudi Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Kholood at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 82M. BorjanG
- 79F. Al JayzaniD
- 67M. Al KhaibariD
- 26R. AbascalD
- 12S. HazaziD
- 22V. LekhalM
- 6K. KeitaM
- 10T. OkouM
- 19H. Al ShurafaM
- 14H. A. Bahri E.M
- 11H. Al Ali
- 97E. FidaG
- 23H. QasimD
- 5H. MajrashiD
- 13O. Al BoardiD
- 3Y. Al MusaD
- 17H. Al RaqwaniF
- 20B. Al-Harthi
- 29S. MatarM
- 24A. Al TaleM
- 1A. M. Yousef H.G
- 15R. SolanD
- 5E. UtkusD
- 25M. CamaraD
- 38S. PinasD
- 8S. CisseM
- 6J. BuckleyM
- 70M. SawanM
- 10I. KortajarenaM
- 11C. da CostaM
- 22J. DominguesF
- 30M. Al ShammariG
- 7S. Al ShehriD
- 47A. Al ObaidD
- 24O. Abdulghani
- 67M. Al Rashidi
- 39A. Al DawsariM
- 52R. JamanM
- 26Y. Al ZubaidiF
- 27A. Al AjianF
Form going into Al Riyadh vs Al Kholood
Al Riyadh
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Al Khaleej Saihat7 September 2026
- L0-5away to Al-Ahli Jeddah4 September 2026
Al Kholood
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Al Shabab9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Fayha3 September 2026
- W3-1Al-Ahli Jeddah29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Kholood | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Al Riyadh and Al Kholood
Al Riyadh
No player in Pro League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Al Kholood
GoalsAssists
- J. Domingues63
- Iker Kortajarena41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Al Riyadh beat Al Kholood 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Kholood at 37% and given a win for Al Riyadh 35%. The goals: K. Keita 66' for Al Riyadh, R. Abascal 89' for Al Riyadh. On expected goals it finished 1.06–0.69.
How the call on Al Riyadh v Al Kholood has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Al Kholood's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Al Riyadh win35%=
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Al Kholood win37%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.