Leeds vs Crystal Palace Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Leeds, 26% draw, 27% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leeds at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leeds vs Crystal Palace
Line-ups
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 18A. StachM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 19N. OkaforF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 7D. JamesF
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 14L. NmechaF
- 44I. GruevM
- 44W. BenítezG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 17T. TomiyasuD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 8J. LermaM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 11D. McNeilF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 7I. SarrF
- 9E. NketiahF
Form going into Leeds vs Crystal Palace
Leeds
Premier League
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Crystal Palace
- 15 March 2026Crystal Palace 0–0 LeedsPremier League
- 20 December 2025Leeds 4–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 9 April 2023Leeds 1–5 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 9 October 2022Crystal Palace 2–1 LeedsPremier League
- 22 July 2022Crystal Palace 1–1 LeedsFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Leeds and Crystal Palace
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Crystal Palace
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leeds and Crystal Palace drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Leeds at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.
How the call on Leeds v Crystal Palace has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 26% / 27%: the biggest move is Leeds's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Leeds win47%▲ +8
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Crystal Palace win27%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.