Bournemouth vs Liverpool Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 36% Liverpool — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 37% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Line-ups
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 8A. ScottM
- 37RayanM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 29D. JebbisonF
- 27A. TóthM
- 24Juanlu SánchezM
- 11B. DoakF
- 7D. BrooksM
- 4L. CookM
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 6J. SolerD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 67L. KoumasF
- 23Víctor MuñozF
- 42T. NyoniM
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 2J. GomezD
- 25G. MamardashviliG
Form going into Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Bournemouth
Premier League
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
Liverpool
Premier League
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Liverpool
- 24 January 2026Bournemouth 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 15 August 2025Liverpool 4–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 1 February 2025Bournemouth 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 21 September 2024Liverpool 3–0 BournemouthPremier League
- 21 January 2024Bournemouth 0–4 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Liverpool
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier50
- Evanilson34
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool won 1–0 at Bournemouth. The model had leaned towards a win for Bournemouth at 37% and given a win for Liverpool 36%. The goal: Alexander Isak 57' for Liverpool.
How the call on Bournemouth v Liverpool has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bournemouth win37%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Liverpool win36%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.