15 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Mallorca vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mallorca 2-0 Valladolid.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Mallorca, 29% draw, 25% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mallorca at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mallorca99%Draw1%Valladolid0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Miguel Calatayud
36'
Sergi Darder
45+1'
60'
David Torres
61'
Ramón Martínez
⚽P. Torre
62'
🔁M. Calatayudout: M. Morey Bauza
68'
🔁P. Torreout: A. Sala
68'
🔁A. Rocaout: A. Liso
68'
⚽A. Railloassist: A. Sala
72'
73'
🔁T. Ojedaout: M. Lachuer
73'
🔁V. Fernandezout: J. Delgado
🔁Z. Luvumboout: A. Sanchez
81'
85'
🔁J. Ponceauout: M. Parriego
85'
🔁Y. Cabanzonout: V. Erlien
🔁M. Morlanesout: A. Puigmal
89'
•Adrian Liso
90+1'

Match stats — Mallorca vs Valladolid

48%Possession52%
7Shots12
3On target1
3Corners3
1xG0.67

Goals against chances

Mallorca2 from 1.00 xGmore than the chances were worth
Valladolid0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mallorca 4-4-2
  • 1A. TenasG
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21A. RailloD
  • 3T. LatoD
  • 11Z. LuvumboM
  • 8M. MorlanesM
  • 10S. DarderM
  • 23A. RocaM
  • 18A. FuentesF
  • 20P. TorreF
Substitutes
  • 25Pichu CuellarG
  • 13L. BergstromG
  • 22A. SoumahoroD
  • 2M. Morey BauzaD
  • 4D. LopezD
  • 29L. OrejuelaD
  • 17A. PuigmalM
  • 6A. SanchezM
  • 7A. SalaM
Coach: Luis Garcia
Valladolid 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. AcevesG
  • 14I. AlejoD
  • 5R. MartinezD
  • 4D. TorresD
  • 27I. GarrielD
  • 8T. OjedaM
  • 21J. PonceauM
  • 11Y. CabanzonM
  • 30V. FernandezM
  • 7L. ChaconM
  • 9J. LatasaF
Substitutes
  • 26A. de PabloG
  • 35A. GaldeanoD
  • 6M. LachuerM
  • 32M. ParriegoM
  • 15P. TomeoD
  • 12J. DelgadoF
  • 23V. ErlienF
  • 34B. ChineduF
  • 37H. CalvoF
Coach: Fran Escriba

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Mallorca12642157+822
12Valladolid135352220+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Valladolid

  • 10 May 2025Mallorca 2–1 ValladolidLa Liga
  • 27 September 2024Valladolid 1–2 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 9 April 2023Valladolid 3–3 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 7 January 2023Mallorca 1–0 ValladolidLa Liga
  • 1 February 2020Mallorca 0–1 ValladolidLa Liga
  • 3 November 2019Valladolid 3–0 MallorcaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Mallorca and Valladolid

Mallorca

GoalsAssists

  • Fuentes71

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mallorca beat Valladolid 2–0. The model had made a win for Mallorca its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: P. Torre 62' for Mallorca, A. Raillo 72' for Mallorca. On expected goals it finished 1.00–0.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.