FC Andorra
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 37% FC Andorra, 29% draw, 34% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Andorra 1.24, AD Ceuta FC 1.17.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Andorra carry a model rating of 6.93 against 7.04 for AD Ceuta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for FC Andorra and 1.17 for AD Ceuta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Andorra rate 0.89 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 1.06 and 0.74.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Andorra the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Andorra against 1.17 for AD Ceuta FC. FC Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.74 for AD Ceuta FC.