Mallorca
vs
Las Palmas
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Mallorca 1–0 Las Palmas
The model makes it 47% Mallorca, 28% draw, 25% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mallorca 1.76, Las Palmas 0.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 47% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Mallorca
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II19 September 2026
- W2-0Sabadell13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
Las Palmas
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
What these results say
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mallorca had two goals or fewer.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mallorca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
- 16 February 2025Mallorca 3–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 23 November 2024Las Palmas 2–3 MallorcaLa Liga
- 11 May 2024Mallorca 1–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 12 August 2023Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
- 4 April 2021Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaSegunda División
- 10 January 2021Mallorca 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Las Palmas
Mallorca
- Fuentes4 goals
Las Palmas
- T. Miyashiro2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mallorca carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.55 for Las Palmas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Mallorca and 0.96 for Las Palmas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mallorca rate 0.88 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Las Palmas rate 0.72 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mallorca a 3% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mallorca against 0.96 for Las Palmas. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.31 for Las Palmas.