11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Mallorca vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
Referee: Gorka Etayo Herrera
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Mallorca, 25% draw, 21% Las Palmas — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mallorca at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mallorca99%Draw1%Las Palmas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pablo Torreassist: Josep Cerda
27'
•Alex Sala
43'
Adrian Liso
44'
52'
Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi
⚽Alex Salaassist: Adrian Fuentes
53'
57'
🔁Kirian Rodríguezout: Elías Romero
62'
Elías Romero
66'
🔁Taisei Miyashiroout: Rafael Cruz Suarez
🔁Josep Cerdaout: Zito Luvumbo
68'
🔁Alberto Morenoout: Antonio Latorre Grueso
68'
73'
⚽Iván Jaimeassist: Jefte Betancor Sanchez
🔁Pablo Torreout: Sergi Darder
74'
⚽Adrian Fuentesassist: Sergi Darder
82'
🔁Alex Salaout: Miguel Calatayud García
83'
🔁Antonio Sánchezout: Guille Fernández
83'
85'
🔁Jefte Betancor Sanchezout: Manu Fuster
85'
🔁Enzo Loiodiceout: Giovanni Bonfanti
85'
🔁Adrián Rodríguez del Rosarioout: Mateo Acimovic
86'
Juanma Herzog

Match stats — Mallorca vs Las Palmas

64%Possession36%
12Shots4
6On target2
7Corners2
0.86xG0.35

Goals against chances

Mallorca3 from 0.86 xGmore than the chances were worth
Las Palmas1 from 0.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mallorca 4-4-2
  • 1Arnau TenasG
  • 15John NwankwoD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21RaílloD
  • 5Alberto MorenoD
  • 33Adrian LisoM
  • 6Antonio SánchezM
  • 7Álex SalaM
  • 19Josep CerdàM
  • 18FuentesF
  • 20Pablo TorreF
Substitutes
  • 4David LópezD
  • 3Toni LatoD
  • 30J. KalumbaF
  • 2Guille FernándezM
  • 10DarderM
  • 25Iván CuéllarG
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 16A. BuksaF
  • 13L. BergströmG
Coach: Luis García
Las Palmas 4-5-1
  • 13José CaroG
  • 25Valentín PezzolesiD
  • 4Álex SuárezD
  • 15Juan HerzogD
  • 44Adrián Rodríguez del RosarioD
  • 11T. MiyashiroM
  • 12E. LoiodiceM
  • 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
  • 20Kirian RodríguezM
  • 24Iván JaimeM
  • 7Jefté BetancorF
Substitutes
  • 26A. BassingaM
  • 16Mateo AcimovicM
  • 21G. BonfantiD
  • 32Rafa CruzF
  • 28Aimar Domínguez RodríguezM
  • 14Manu FusterM
  • 30I. MedinaF
  • 3N. OpokuD
  • 23A. RodriguezD
Coach: Rubén De La Barrera

Form going into Mallorca vs Las Palmas

Mallorca

Segunda División

  • D0-0away to Girona4 October 2026

Las Palmas

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
  • L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
  • D0-0Leganes4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Mallorca12642157+822
10Las Palmas136251921-220

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Las Palmas

  • 16 February 2025Mallorca 3–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
  • 23 November 2024Las Palmas 2–3 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 11 May 2024Mallorca 1–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
  • 12 August 2023Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
  • 4 April 2021Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Mallorca and Las Palmas

Mallorca

GoalsAssists

  • Fuentes71

Las Palmas

GoalsAssists

  • Jesé41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mallorca beat Las Palmas 3–1. The model had made a win for Mallorca its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Pablo Torre 27' for Mallorca, Alex Sala 53' for Mallorca, Iván Jaime 73' for Las Palmas, Adrian Fuentes 82' for Mallorca. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.35.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mallorca a 55.0% chance to finish in the top four: 58.6% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 47.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.6%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Las Palmas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.0% going in: 8.4% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mallorca v Las Palmas has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Mallorca's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Mallorca win54%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −3
  3. Las Palmas win21%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.