Almeria
vs
Leganes
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Almeria 1–0 Leganes
The model makes it 48% Almeria, 28% draw, 24% Leganes — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Almeria 1.80, Leganes 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Almeria vs Leganes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almeria at 48% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Almeria vs Leganes
Almeria
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
Leganes
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
- W1-0Eldense29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Oviedo22 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Almeria had two goals or fewer.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leganes had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Almeria | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 | Leganes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Leganes
- 5 April 2026Almeria 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 22 November 2025Leganes 0–3 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 15 January 2025Almeria 2–3 LeganesCopa del Rey
- 29 May 2022Leganes 2–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 29 October 2021Almeria 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 27 March 2021Almeria 1–1 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Leganes
Almeria
- Javi Muñoz2 goals2 assists
Leganes
- Ismaël Gharbi2 goals1 assists
- Naim García2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Almeria carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.45 for Leganes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Almeria and 0.95 for Leganes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Almeria rate 0.90 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leganes rate 0.58 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almeria a 3.6% chance of the title and Leganes 3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Almeria against 0.95 for Leganes. Almeria's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.31 for Leganes.