Almeria vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 3-0 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Almeria, 24% draw, 16% Leganes — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Leganes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 9ThalysF
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 31Á. YaakobishviliG
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 26K. KoneM
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 11Naim GarcíaD
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 2MarvelD
- 23Álvaro TejeroD
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 17Ismaël GharbiF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 24A. DiawaraM
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 19P. SokoF
Form going into Almeria vs Leganes
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
Leganes
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Las Palmas4 September 2026
What these results say
- Almeria won every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leganes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 29 |
| 18 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Leganes
- 5 April 2026Almeria 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 22 November 2025Leganes 0–3 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 15 January 2025Almeria 2–3 LeganesCopa del Rey
- 29 May 2022Leganes 2–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 29 October 2021Almeria 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Leganes
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente81
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria beat Leganes 3–0. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Miguel De La Fuente 52' for Almeria, Miguel De La Fuente 57' for Almeria, Daijiro Chirino 61' for Almeria. On expected goals it finished 1.25–0.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almeria a 56.9% chance to finish in the top four: 59.3% after a win, 53.3% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.3%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For Leganes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.5% going in: 21.8% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.2%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Almeria v Leganes has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 60% / 24% / 16%: the biggest move is Almeria's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Almeria win60%▲ +12
- Draw24%▼ −4
- Leganes win16%▼ −8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.