Burgos
vs
Granada CF
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Burgos 1–0 Granada CF
The model makes it 47% Burgos, 29% draw, 24% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.62, Granada CF 0.83.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Burgos are 4th on 14 points from 7 games; Granada CF are 13th on 8 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Burgos are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Eldense.
- Granada CF are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to FC Andorra.
- Last 6 meetings: Granada CF 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Granada CF 0–1 Burgos.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Burgos vs Granada CF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Burgos vs Granada CF
Burgos
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
Granada CF
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
- L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Eibar6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026
What these results say
- Burgos went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Granada CF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Granada CF
- 16 May 2026Granada CF 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 September 2025Burgos 1–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 10 January 2025Granada CF 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 29 September 2024Burgos 2–2 Granada CFSegunda División
- 4 March 2023Burgos 1–3 Granada CFSegunda División
- 11 December 2022Granada CF 1–0 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and Granada CF
Burgos
- Álex Forés3 goals1 assist
- David González3 goals1 assist
Granada CF
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Burgos carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.45 for Granada CF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Burgos and 0.83 for Granada CF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Burgos rate 0.67 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Granada CF rate 0.71 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Burgos a 3.4% chance of the title and Granada CF 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Burgos against 0.83 for Granada CF. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.67/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.58 for Granada CF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Burgos at home · Granada CF away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Burgos 7, Granada CF 7.
Burgos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Granada CF have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Burgos
- vs Sabadell18 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at FC Andorra25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Castellón1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 35%
- vs Celta de Vigo II8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
Granada CF
- vs Cadiz18 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 45%
- vs Valladolid25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
- at Eldense1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Tenerife8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.