Cadiz
vs
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Cadiz 0–1 Sporting Gijon
The model makes it 31% Cadiz, 30% draw, 39% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cadiz 1.07, Sporting Gijon 1.37.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
Cadiz
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
- L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Almeria6 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid30 August 2026
Sporting Gijon
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
What these results say
- Cadiz did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cadiz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
- 19 April 2026Sporting Gijon 3–0 CadizSegunda División
- 9 January 2026Cadiz 3–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 April 2025Cadiz 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2024Sporting Gijon 2–0 CadizSegunda División
- 15 January 2022Sporting Gijon 0–0 CadizCopa del Rey
- 21 February 2020Sporting Gijon 1–0 CadizSegunda División
The two sides
Cadiz carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.57 for Sporting Gijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Cadiz and 1.37 for Sporting Gijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cadiz rate 0.57 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Gijon rate 0.70 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cadiz a 0% chance of the title and Sporting Gijon 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cadiz against 1.37 for Sporting Gijon. Cadiz's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.23 for Sporting Gijon.