11 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result

JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz
Referee: Saul Ais Reig
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Cadiz 0-1 Sporting Gijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cadiz, 29% draw, 37% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Gijon at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cadiz0%Draw4%Sporting Gijon96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
Manuel Rodríguez Paz
Sergio Arribas Prieto
50'
54'
Jorge Sáenz
🔁Aimen Moueffekout: Marc-Olivier Doué
65'
69'
🔁Enol Prendes Ortizout: Diego Matabuena Álvarez
🔁Ibon Ignacio Sánchez Océnout: Borja Vazquez
74'
🔁Vladyslav Kopotunout: Álvaro García Pascual
74'
80'
🔁Manuel Rodríguez Pazout: Mamadou Loum
80'
🔁Gaspar Camposout: Pablo García
🔁Antonio Corderoout: Damián Rodríguez Sousa
86'
🔁Jandro Orellanaout: Efe Ugiagbe Aghama
86'
87'
⚽Pablo García
90+2'
🔁César Gelabertout: Iker Martinez Martinez

Match stats — Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon

54%Possession46%
7Shots13
1On target1
8Corners6
0.56xG0.71

Goals against chances

Cadiz0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Sporting Gijon1 from 0.71 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cadiz 4-2-3-1
  • 1David GilG
  • 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
  • 4Javi CastroD
  • 6Manu FernándezD
  • 3Sergio ArribasD
  • 18Jandro OrellanaM
  • 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
  • 24Ibon SánchezM
  • 17A. MoueffekM
  • 16Antonio CorderoM
  • 21V. KopotunF
Substitutes
  • 9Álvaro GarcíaF
  • 13Jokin EzkietaG
  • 19Urko IzetaF
  • 14B. KovačevićD
  • 10Javi OntiverosM
  • 25G. PetitF
  • 23Damián RodríguezM
  • 8E. AghamaF
  • 31N. UkwuijeD
Coach: Celades
Sporting Gijon 4-2-3-1
  • 1Rubén YáñezG
  • 2Guille RosasD
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 23Jorge SáenzD
  • 44Andrés CuencaD
  • 8M. RodriguezM
  • 14Álex CorrederaM
  • 27Enol PrendesM
  • 10César GelabertM
  • 7Gaspar CamposM
  • 16A. SarcoF
Substitutes
  • 15Pablo VázquezD
  • 5Diego SánchezD
  • 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
  • 26Iker MartínezD
  • 21M. LoumM
  • 22Hugo GuillamónM
  • 3Pablo GarcíaD
  • 35C. FerreresM
  • 28M. CondeF
Coach: N. Larcamón

Form going into Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon

Cadiz

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
  • L1-2Girona19 September 2026
  • L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Almeria6 September 2026

Sporting Gijon

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
  • L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
  • L0-2Girona5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Cadiz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cadiz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cadiz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Gijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Cadiz132471618-210
7Sporting Gijon137151415-122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon

  • 19 April 2026Sporting Gijon 3–0 CadizSegunda División
  • 9 January 2026Cadiz 3–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 25 April 2025Cadiz 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 2 November 2024Sporting Gijon 2–0 CadizSegunda División
  • 15 January 2022Sporting Gijon 0–0 CadizCopa del Rey

Leading scorers: Cadiz and Sporting Gijon

Cadiz

GoalsAssists

  • Antonio Cordero52

Sporting Gijon

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Gijon won 1–0 at Cadiz. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sporting Gijon at 37%. The goal: Pablo García 87' for Sporting Gijon. On expected goals it finished 0.56–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cadiz a 31.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.5% after a win, 31.8% after a draw, 34.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Sporting Gijon the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.2% going in: 12.8% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 7.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cadiz v Sporting Gijon has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 31% / 30% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 29% / 37%: the biggest move is Cadiz's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Cadiz win34%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Sporting Gijon win37%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.