FC Andorra
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: FC Andorra 1–2 Castellón
The model makes it 32% FC Andorra, 27% draw, 41% Castellón — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Andorra 1.47, Castellón 1.87.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Andorra vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Andorra vs Castellón
FC Andorra
- W3-2away to Granada CF26 September 2026
- L1-3Sporting Gijon19 September 2026
- L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Valladolid5 September 2026
- L0-1Eibar30 August 2026
Castellón
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Andorra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Andorra failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Castellón won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 |
| 1 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Castellón
- 1 February 2026Castellón 2–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 22 November 2025FC Andorra 1–3 CastellónSegunda División
- 26 March 2022FC Andorra 1–0 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 11 December 2021Castellón 1–3 FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 8 December 2019Castellón 3–1 FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 3
Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Castellón
FC Andorra
- Jordi Cano4 goals1 assists
Castellón
- Ousmane Camara4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Andorra carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.74 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for FC Andorra and 1.87 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Andorra rate 0.84 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.92 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Andorra a 0% chance of the title and Castellón 20.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Andorra against 1.87 for Castellón. FC Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.15 for Castellón.