11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Andorra vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la FAF, Encamp
Referee: Abraham Domínguez Cervantes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Andorra 1-0 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Andorra, 27% draw, 42% Castellón — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Castellón at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Andorra95%Draw5%Castellón0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Carles Manso Rubio
12'
⚽Moró Sidibeassist: Jordi Cano
13'
Efe Akman
31'
Marc Doménech Costa
38'
45'
🔁Raúl Sánchezout: Alvaro Martin
45'
🔁Lucas Alcázarout: Íñigo Córdoba
65'
🔁Pablo Santiagoout: Álvaro García Arana
65'
🔁Diego Barriout: rodrigo rego
🔁Efe Akmanout: Randy Schneider
65'
Lautaro Marco Spatz
67'
🔁Diego Díazout: Julian Rijkhoff
72'
🔁Jordi Canoout: Lautaro De León
72'
•Julian Rijkhoff
78'
80'
🔁Matías Orozcoout: antonio gala
🔁Lautaro Marco Spatzout: Juan Sebastián Serrano
80'
🔁Moró Sidibeout: Nacho Quintana
80'
83'
Agustín Sienra
90+1'
Alberto Jiménez
90+2'
Pablo Hernández Domínguez
Julian Rijkhoff
90+3'

Match stats — FC Andorra vs Castellón

43%Possession57%
16Shots12
8On target3
4Corners7
2.63xG0.72

Goals against chances

FC Andorra1 from 2.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Castellón0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Andorra 4-3-3
  • 25Jesús OwonoG
  • 17T. CarriqueD
  • 3L. SpatzD
  • 23Diego AlendeD
  • 20Martí VilàD
  • 10Marc DomènechM
  • 14Sergio MolinaM
  • 8E. AkmanM
  • 22D. DiazF
  • 15Jordi CanoF
  • 21Moró SidibeF
Substitutes
  • 9Julian Dean RijkhoffF
  • 1N. RattiG
  • 19Nacho QuintanaM
  • 28T. OlmedoM
  • 29Hugo LópezF
  • 27S. GolubovicF
  • 12E. SaliF
  • 16R. SchneiderM
  • 2Juan SerranoD
Coach: Carles Manso
Castellón 4-4-2
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5Alberto JiménezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 12Lucas AlcázarD
  • 18Pablo SantiagoM
  • 8BarriM
  • 6M. OrozcoM
  • 16A. JakobsenM
  • 10Israel SueroF
  • 7Raúl SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 11F. CeccheriniD
  • 20Martín CondeD
  • 14Iñigo CórdobaM
  • 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 23Varo GarcíaF
  • 15I. KostisD
  • 21Álvaro MartínM
  • 24D. Muale NzanzaF
Coach: Pablo Hernández

Form going into FC Andorra vs Castellón

FC Andorra

Segunda División

  • D0-0away to Sabadell4 October 2026

Castellón

Segunda División

  • D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19FC Andorra123271722-511
2Castellón12831235+1827

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Castellón

  • 1 February 2026Castellón 2–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
  • 22 November 2025FC Andorra 1–3 CastellónSegunda División
  • 26 March 2022FC Andorra 1–0 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 11 December 2021Castellón 1–3 FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 2

Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Castellón

FC Andorra

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Cano52

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Israel Suero62
  • Ousmane Camara41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Andorra beat Castellón 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Castellón at 42% and given a win for FC Andorra 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Moró Sidibe 13' for FC Andorra. On expected goals it finished 2.63–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Andorra a 11.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.0% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 13.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.0%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

For Castellón the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 70.4% going in: 75.4% after a win, 68.3% after a draw, 65.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.8%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.