Western Sydney Wanderers
vs
Adelaide United
A-League prediction
Our model says: Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Adelaide United
The model makes it 42% Western Sydney Wanderers, 25% draw, 33% Adelaide United — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Western Sydney Wanderers 1.86, Adelaide United 1.61.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Western Sydney Wanderers's rating is built from 30 A-League matches and Adelaide United's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 362 matches.
Key facts
- Western Sydney Wanderers are 6th on 5 points from 4 games; Adelaide United are bottom on 1 point from 3 games — A-League.
- Western Sydney Wanderers have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Melbourne City.
- Adelaide United have not won in their last 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Melbourne Victory.
- Last 6 meetings: Adelaide United 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Western Sydney Wanderers 2–4 Adelaide United.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United
Has the model earned this number?
Western Sydney Wanderers at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United
Western Sydney Wanderers
A-League
- L1-2away to Melbourne City7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Macarthur FC31 October 2026
- W5-2Auckland FC24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sydney FC16 October 2026
Adelaide United
A-League
- D2-2Melbourne Victory8 November 2026
- L0-4away to Perth Glory1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Sydney FC25 October 2026
What these results say
- Western Sydney Wanderers failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United
- 20 March 2026Western Sydney Wanderers 2–4 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 27 December 2025Adelaide United 3–2 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 7 November 2025Adelaide United 2–0 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 27 December 2024Adelaide United 2–3 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 2 November 2024Western Sydney Wanderers 3–4 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 12 September 2024Adelaide United 2–1 Western Sydney WanderersAustralia Cup
Leading scorers: Western Sydney Wanderers and Adelaide United
Western Sydney Wanderers
GoalsAssists
- N. Milanovic20
- A. Waraga10
Adelaide United
GoalsAssists
- Brody Burkitt20
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Western Sydney Wanderers the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Western Sydney Wanderers against 1.61 for Adelaide United. Western Sydney Wanderers's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2.05 for Adelaide United.
How the model reaches 42% for Western Sydney Wanderers to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Western Sydney Wanderers to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Western Sydney Wanderers's ratings change nothing and Adelaide United's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Both sides at this match's level40%+1
- Western Sydney Wanderers's ratings40%±0
- Adelaide United's ratings42%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Season stats
Western Sydney Wanderers at home · Adelaide United away
League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All A-League matches this season: Western Sydney Wanderers 4, Adelaide United 3.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Western Sydney Wanderers
- vs Perth Glory5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 35%
- vs Wellington Phoenix13 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Brisbane Roar19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Newcastle Jets26 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
- vs Macarthur FC1 Jan · A-Leaguewin 41%
Adelaide United
- at Wellington Phoenix6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 28%
- vs Macarthur FC11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 40%
- vs Brisbane Roar15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Newcastle Jets20 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Central Coast Mariners27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.