Auckland FC
vs
Melbourne Victory
A-League prediction
Our model says: Auckland FC 2–1 Melbourne Victory
The model makes it 40% Auckland FC, 26% draw, 34% Melbourne Victory — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Auckland FC 1.69, Melbourne Victory 1.51.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Auckland FC are 8th on 5 points from 4 games; Melbourne Victory are 9th on 3 points from 4 games — A-League.
- Auckland FC are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Wellington Phoenix.
- Melbourne Victory have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Adelaide United.
- Last 6 meetings: Auckland FC 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Auckland FC 2–2 Melbourne Victory.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory
Has the model earned this number?
Auckland FC at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory
Auckland FC
A-League
- D0-0Wellington Phoenix7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Brisbane Roar30 October 2026
- L2-5away to Western Sydney Wanderers24 October 2026
- W3-1Melbourne City17 October 2026
Melbourne Victory
A-League
- D2-2away to Adelaide United8 November 2026
- D1-1Central Coast Mariners1 November 2026
- D1-1Melbourne City24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wellington Phoenix18 October 2026
What these results say
- Auckland FC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Auckland FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Auckland FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Melbourne Victory did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Melbourne Victory scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Melbourne Victory conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Auckland FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Auckland FC vs Melbourne Victory
- 11 April 2026Auckland FC 2–2 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 18 October 2025Melbourne Victory 0–0 Auckland FCA-League
- 24 May 2025Auckland FC 0–2 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 17 May 2025Melbourne Victory 0–1 Auckland FCA-League
- 19 April 2025Melbourne Victory 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 1 January 2025Auckland FC 0–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
Leading scorers: Auckland FC and Melbourne Victory
Auckland FC
GoalsAssists
- L. Bayliss20
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- K. Jelacic20
- J. Valadon20
- C. Nduka12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Auckland FC against 1.51 for Melbourne Victory. Auckland FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.68 for Melbourne Victory.
How the model reaches 40% for Auckland FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Auckland FC to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Auckland FC's ratings add 1 point and Melbourne Victory's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Auckland FC's ratings40%+1
- Melbourne Victory's ratings40%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Season stats
Auckland FC at home · Melbourne Victory away
League matches only, A-League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All A-League matches this season: Auckland FC 4, Melbourne Victory 4.
Melbourne Victory score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Auckland FC have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Auckland FC
- at Central Coast Mariners28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
- vs Sydney FC12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Wellington Phoenix19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Melbourne City27 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- vs Adelaide United1 Jan · A-Leaguewin 47%
Melbourne Victory
- at Sydney FC6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
- vs Newcastle Jets12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 42%
- at Melbourne City19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Wellington Phoenix29 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- vs Perth Glory3 Jan · A-Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.