Lusail City
vs
Qatar SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Lusail City 1–0 Qatar SC
The model makes it 43% Lusail City, 28% draw, 29% Qatar SC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lusail City 1.52, Qatar SC 1.15.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,662 settled matches.
Edge to Lusail City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Lusail City's rating is built from 8 Qatar Stars League matches and Qatar SC's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.
Key facts
- Lusail City are 7th on 9 points from 8 games; Qatar SC are 11th on 6 points from 8 games — Stars League.
- Lusail City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Al-Sailiya.
- Qatar SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Al-Gharafa.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lusail City vs Qatar SC
Has the model earned this number?
Lusail City at 43%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lusail City vs Qatar SC
Lusail City
Stars League
- W2-1away to Al-Sailiya31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Al-Duhail SC24 October 2026
- D0-0Al Shamal17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
Qatar SC
Stars League
- L0-2away to Al-Gharafa30 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Shamal23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Sailiya17 October 2026
- L0-3Al-Rayyan SC9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Lusail City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qatar SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lusail City | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lusail City
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 3% today
Qatar SC
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 46% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lusail City vs Qatar SC
- 9 April 2022Lusail City 1–0 Qatar SCQFA Cup
Leading scorers: Lusail City and Qatar SC
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo50
- F. Zavoshi30
Qatar SC
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusail City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lusail City against 1.15 for Qatar SC. Lusail City's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.75 for Qatar SC.
How the model reaches 43% for Lusail City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Lusail City to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Lusail City's ratings add 3 points and Qatar SC's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Lusail City's ratings39%+3
- Qatar SC's ratings43%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lusail City at home · Qatar SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Lusail City 8, Qatar SC 8.
Lusail City score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Qatar SC have let in 1 there.
Qatar SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Lusail City have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lusail City
- at Al Sadd27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 23%
- vs Al-Arabi SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 29%
Qatar SC
- at Al-Duhail SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 17%
- vs Al Shahaniya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.