Al Wakrah
vs
Al Shahaniya
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Wakrah 2–1 Al Shahaniya
The model makes it 53% Al Wakrah, 22% draw, 25% Al Shahaniya — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Wakrah 2.34, Al Shahaniya 1.44.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.
Edge to Al Wakrah: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Al Wakrah's rating is built from 30 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Shahaniya's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.
Key facts
- Al Wakrah are 6th on 11 points from 8 games; Al Shahaniya are 10th on 7 points from 8 games — Stars League.
- Al Wakrah have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Al-Duhail SC.
- Al Shahaniya are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Al Ahli Doha.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Wakrah 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 January 2026, ended Al Wakrah 4–0 Al Shahaniya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya
Has the model earned this number?
Al Wakrah at 53%: of 1,452 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.1% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya
Al Wakrah
Stars League
- L1-3away to Al-Duhail SC31 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Arabi SC24 October 2026
- W3-0away to Al Ahli Doha16 October 2026
- W3-2Al-Gharafa8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al Shamal10 September 2026
Al Shahaniya
Stars League
- L1-2Al Ahli Doha30 October 2026
- L0-4Al Sadd22 October 2026
- L0-6Al-Arabi SC16 October 2026
- W1-0Lusail City10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Wakrah scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Wakrah conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Wakrah had three goals or more.
- Al Shahaniya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shahaniya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Shahaniya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Wakrah
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Al Shahaniya
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 47% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al Wakrah vs Al Shahaniya
- 29 January 2026Al Wakrah 4–0 Al ShahaniyaStars League
- 27 November 2025Al Wakrah 3–0 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
- 29 August 2025Al Shahaniya 0–1 Al WakrahStars League
- 31 January 2025Al Wakrah 0–1 Al ShahaniyaStars League
- 23 August 2024Al Shahaniya 0–1 Al WakrahStars League
- 2 March 2024Al Shahaniya 3–1 Al WakrahQFA Cup
Leading scorers: Al Wakrah and Al Shahaniya
Al Wakrah
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah30
Al Shahaniya
GoalsAssists
- F. Antonucci32
- A. Traoré30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Wakrah the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Al Wakrah against 1.44 for Al Shahaniya. Al Wakrah's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.94 for Al Shahaniya.
How the model reaches 53% for Al Wakrah to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Wakrah to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al Wakrah's ratings add 8 points and Al Shahaniya's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al Wakrah's ratings46%+8
- Al Shahaniya's ratings53%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Wakrah at home · Al Shahaniya away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Wakrah 8, Al Shahaniya 8.
Al Wakrah score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Al Shahaniya have let in 8 there.
Al Shahaniya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Wakrah have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al Wakrah
- vs Al-Sailiya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 60%
- vs Al Sadd3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 24%
Al Shahaniya
- vs Al-Rayyan SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 13%
- at Qatar SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.