Al-Arabi SC
vs
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al Ahli Doha
The model makes it 48% Al-Arabi SC, 24% draw, 28% Al Ahli Doha — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al-Arabi SC 1.97, Al Ahli Doha 1.38.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,657 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Arabi SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Al-Arabi SC's rating is built from 30 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Ahli Doha's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Arabi SC are 4th on 13 points from 8 games; Al Ahli Doha are 5th on 11 points from 8 games — Stars League.
- Al-Arabi SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Al-Rayyan SC.
- Al Ahli Doha have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Al Shahaniya.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Arabi SC 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al-Arabi SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Arabi SC at 48%: of 2,649 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah24 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- W2-1away to Al Shahaniya30 October 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Gharafa22 October 2026
- L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Rayyan SC11 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Ahli Doha had three goals or more.
- Al Ahli Doha conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ahli Doha | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Arabi SC
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
Al Ahli Doha
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Arabi SC vs Al Ahli Doha
- 13 March 2026Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 9 November 2025Al-Arabi SC 1–0 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 23 February 2025Al-Arabi SC 4–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 22 September 2024Al Ahli Doha 3–3 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 30 August 2024Al-Arabi SC 1–0 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
- 16 March 2024Al Ahli Doha 1–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Arabi SC and Al Ahli Doha
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia60
- O. Tannane32
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- N. Sliti32
- J. Draxler31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Arabi SC a 0.1% chance of the title and Al Ahli Doha 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Arabi SC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Arabi SC against 1.38 for Al Ahli Doha. Al-Arabi SC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.71 for Al Ahli Doha.
How the model reaches 48% for Al-Arabi SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Arabi SC to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al-Arabi SC's ratings add 4 points and Al Ahli Doha's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al-Arabi SC's ratings42%+4
- Al Ahli Doha's ratings48%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Arabi SC at home · Al Ahli Doha away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Arabi SC 8, Al Ahli Doha 8.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Al-Arabi SC
- at Al-Gharafa27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 47%
- at Lusail City3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 43%
Al Ahli Doha
- vs Al Shamal27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 41%
- vs Al-Duhail SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.