Al Shamal
vs
Al-Sailiya
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Shamal 2–1 Al-Sailiya
The model makes it 53% Al Shamal, 22% draw, 25% Al-Sailiya — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Shamal 2.37, Al-Sailiya 1.48.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.
Edge to Al Shamal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Al Shamal's rating is built from 30 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Sailiya's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.
Key facts
- Al Shamal are 9th on 9 points from 8 games; Al-Sailiya are bottom on 1 point from 8 games — Stars League.
- Al Shamal have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Al Sadd.
- Al-Sailiya have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lusail City.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Sailiya 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 January 2026, ended Al Shamal 0–0 Al-Sailiya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya
Has the model earned this number?
Al Shamal at 53%: of 1,452 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.1% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya
Al Shamal
Stars League
- L1-4away to Al Sadd30 October 2026
- L2-3Qatar SC23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lusail City17 October 2026
- L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Wakrah10 September 2026
Al-Sailiya
Stars League
- L1-2Lusail City31 October 2026
- L1-6Al-Rayyan SC23 October 2026
- D2-2Qatar SC17 October 2026
- L0-5away to Al Ahli Doha10 October 2026
- L3-6Al Sadd10 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Shamal did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Sailiya did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al-Sailiya conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al-Sailiya had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Al Shamal | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 28 | -19 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Shamal
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 2% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya
- 30 January 2026Al Shamal 0–0 Al-SailiyaStars League
- 30 August 2025Al-Sailiya 1–2 Al ShamalStars League
- 5 February 2023Al Shamal 0–5 Al-SailiyaStars League
- 10 August 2022Al-Sailiya 2–1 Al ShamalStars League
- 13 April 2022Al Shamal 2–3 Al-SailiyaQFA Cup
- 7 January 2022Al-Sailiya 0–2 Al ShamalStars League
Leading scorers: Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- A. Zouhzouh61
- Gelson Dala30
Al-Sailiya
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Shamal the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Al Shamal against 1.48 for Al-Sailiya. Al Shamal's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.34 for Al-Sailiya.
How the model reaches 53% for Al Shamal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Shamal to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al Shamal's ratings add 7 points and Al-Sailiya's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al Shamal's ratings45%+7
- Al-Sailiya's ratings53%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Shamal at home · Al-Sailiya away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Shamal 8, Al-Sailiya 8.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al-Sailiya have let in 2 there.
Al-Sailiya score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Al Shamal have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Shamal
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
- at Al Ahli Doha27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 35%
- vs Al-Rayyan SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 18%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 5%
- at Al-Nassr8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 6%
Al-Sailiya
- at Al Wakrah27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 20%
- vs Al-Gharafa3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.