Regular Season - 9 · 8 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC Stars League prediction

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang

Our model says: Al Sadd 1–2 Al-Rayyan SC

The model makes it 34% Al Sadd, 24% draw, 42% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Al Sadd 1.73, Al-Rayyan SC 1.97.

Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,662 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Al Sadd's rating is built from 30 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Rayyan SC's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.

Key facts

  • Al Sadd are top on 18 points from 8 games; Al-Rayyan SC are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games — Stars League.
  • Al Sadd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Al Shamal.
  • Al-Rayyan SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Al-Arabi SC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Al Sadd 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Al-Rayyan SC 1–1 Al Sadd.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

71%
Both teams to score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
28%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Al Sadd win Draw Al-Rayyan SC win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 1–28%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–35%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 2–35%

Scores read Al Sadd first; the other scorelines share the remaining 54%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Al-Rayyan SC at 42%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

Al Sadd

Stars League

  • W4-1Al Shamal30 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Al Shahaniya22 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Duhail SC18 October 2026
  • L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026
  • W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026

Al-Rayyan SC

Stars League

  • D0-0away to Al-Arabi SC31 October 2026
  • W6-1away to Al-Sailiya23 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Al-Gharafa18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026
  • W3-0Al Ahli Doha11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Al Sadd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
  • Al Sadd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Al-Rayyan SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Al-Rayyan SC kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Stars League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Al Sadd86023114+1718
2Al-Rayyan SC8530163+1318

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Al Sadd

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 32% today

Win 68%
Draw 31%
Defeat 6%

Al-Rayyan SC

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 39% today

Win 68%
Draw 26%
Defeat 5%

From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Rayyan SC

  • 4 April 2026Al-Rayyan SC 1–1 Al SaddStars League
  • 12 December 2025Al-Rayyan SC 5–3 Al SaddQSL Cup
  • 30 October 2025Al Sadd 5–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
  • 5 April 2025Al-Rayyan SC 1–2 Al SaddStars League
  • 31 October 2024Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
  • 28 April 2024Al-Rayyan SC 4–0 Al SaddStars League

Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Rayyan SC

Al Sadd

GoalsAssists

  • Akram Afif76
  • Roberto Firmino74
  • Y. Abdurisag32

Al-Rayyan SC

GoalsAssists

  • Róger Guedes52
  • Gabriel Pereira31
  • Ahmed Alaa Eldin30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Sadd (first, with Al-Rayyan SC second), while our numbers lean to Al-Rayyan SC. Al-Rayyan SC rate 0.70 in attack and 0.94 in defence, Al Sadd 1.04 and 1.61 (lower is better in defence), so Al-Rayyan SC have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Sadd a 32% chance of the title and Al-Rayyan SC 38.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Al Sadd Al-Rayyan SC
1.04 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.61 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.94
1.73 Model expected goals (this match) 1.97

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Al-Rayyan SC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Sadd against 1.97 for Al-Rayyan SC. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/0.94 for Al-Rayyan SC.

Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.72 for Al-Rayyan SC. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Al-Rayyan SC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Rayyan SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Al Sadd's ratings add 3 points and Al-Rayyan SC's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground38%
  2. Home advantage37%−1
  3. Both sides at this match's level38%+1
  4. Al Sadd's ratings41%+3
  5. Al-Rayyan SC's ratings42%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Al SaddAl-Rayyan SC
8Matches8
6W 0D 2LRecord5W 3D 0L
31 3.9 per gameGoals scored16 2.0 per game
14 1.8 per gameGoals conceded3 0.4 per game
1 of 8Clean sheets5 of 8
0 of 8Failed to score2 of 8
1 of 2Penalties scored–
7 0.9 per gameYellow cards18 2.3 per game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-1-4-1 6×

Al Sadd at home · Al-Rayyan SC away

5Played5
3W 0D 2LRecord3W 2D 0L
15–9Goals for – against11–2
0 of 5Clean sheets3 of 5

League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Stars League matches this season: Al Sadd 8, Al-Rayyan SC 8.

Al Sadd scored 656365
Al-Rayyan SC conceded 000220
Al-Rayyan SC scored 154131
Al Sadd conceded 311315

Al-Rayyan SC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Al Sadd have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Al Sadd

  • at Al-Nassr24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
  • vs Lusail City27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 55%
  • at Al Wakrah3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 57%
  • vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya7 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 80%
  • at Tractor Sazi8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%

Al-Rayyan SC

  • at Al Shahaniya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 66%
  • at Al Shamal3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 59%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.