Al-Gharafa
vs
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Gharafa 1–2 Al-Duhail SC
The model makes it 21% Al-Gharafa, 24% draw, 55% Al-Duhail SC — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.05, Al-Duhail SC 2.00.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.
One-sided: Al-Duhail SC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Al-Gharafa's rating is built from 30 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Duhail SC's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 313 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Gharafa are 8th on 9 points from 8 games; Al-Duhail SC are 3rd on 18 points from 8 games — Stars League.
- Al-Gharafa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Qatar SC.
- Al-Duhail SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Al Wakrah.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Duhail SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Al-Duhail SC 3–2 Al-Gharafa.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
Has the model earned this number?
Al-Duhail SC at 55%: of 1,452 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.1% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
Al-Gharafa
Stars League
- W2-0Qatar SC30 October 2026
- D2-2Al Ahli Doha22 October 2026
- D0-0Al-Rayyan SC18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah8 October 2026
- D0-0Lusail City11 September 2026
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League
- W3-1Al Wakrah31 October 2026
- W3-1Lusail City24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Shahaniya12 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Gharafa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al-Gharafa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Gharafa
Chance to finish in the top four · 3% today
Al-Duhail SC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 29% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
- 4 April 2026Al-Duhail SC 3–2 Al-GharafaStars League
- 14 November 2025Al-Duhail SC 1–0 Al-GharafaQSL Cup
- 30 October 2025Al-Gharafa 3–1 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 23 April 2025Al-Duhail SC 0–0 Al-GharafaQatar Cup
- 29 March 2025Al-Gharafa 0–2 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 27 October 2024Al-Duhail SC 1–1 Al-GharafaStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC
Al-Gharafa
GoalsAssists
- Y. Brahimi50
Al-Duhail SC
GoalsAssists
- Almoez Ali30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Gharafa a 0% chance of the title and Al-Duhail SC 28.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Duhail SC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 2.00 for Al-Duhail SC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.12 for Al-Duhail SC.
How the model reaches 55% for Al-Duhail SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Duhail SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Gharafa's ratings add 9 points and Al-Duhail SC's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage37%−1
- Both sides at this match's level36%−1
- Al-Gharafa's ratings45%+9
- Al-Duhail SC's ratings55%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al-Gharafa at home · Al-Duhail SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Gharafa 8, Al-Duhail SC 8.
Al-Gharafa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Al-Duhail SC have let in 2 there.
Al-Duhail SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Al-Gharafa have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al-Gharafa
- at Al Quwa Al Jawiya23 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- vs Al-Arabi SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 27%
- at Al-Sailiya3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 52%
- vs Al-Nassr8 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 17%
- at Al-Ittihad8 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 12%
Al-Duhail SC
- vs Qatar SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 61%
- at Al Ahli Doha3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.