Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 1-0 CSKA 1948.
Before kick-off the model made it 19% Septemvri Sofia, 23% draw, 58% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA 1948 at 58% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 4Martin HristovD
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 27André LiberalF
- 19Pedro IgorM
- 7Edney RibeiroF
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 21Nikolay KrastevG
- 15Petar GospodinovD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 31Aleks BozhevG
- 2Diego MedinaD
- 4Andre HoffmannD
- 5Benaissa BenamarD
- 15Fourat SoltaniD
- 8Moataz ZemzemiM
- 33Héctor CuellarM
- 67Frédéric MacielM
- 11Georgi RusevM
- 30Jules MeyerM
- 9Atanas IlievF
- 20Brian SobreroM
- 77Elias FrancoM
- 93Mamadou DialloF
- 23Florian KrebsM
- 34Petar VitanovM
- 13Dimitar SheytanovG
- 96Dragan GrivićD
- 10Borislav TsonevM
- 14Kaloyan StrinskiM
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
CSKA 1948
- W4-1Cherno More Varna14 August 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos11 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Panathinaikos5 August 2026
- W2-1Arda Kardzhali31 July 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948
- 23 August 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 3 December 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–4 CSKA 1948First League
- 1 August 2025CSKA 1948 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 11 May 2025CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 3 December 2024CSKA 1948 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 25 September 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–1 CSKA 1948First League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
CSKA 1948
- Frédéric Maciel1 goal
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.