Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 3-1 Dunav Ruse.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cherno More Varna, 19% draw, 42% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.56, 5.26 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-3.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunav Ruse at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 81Kristian TomovG
- 50Ertan TombakD
- 3Zhivko AtanasovD
- 5Luciano SquadroneD
- 37Ventsislav KerchevD
- 71Vasil PanayotovM
- 24David TelesM
- 7Miguel BarandasF
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 11Mohamed AchiM
- 19Georgi LazarovF
- 26João BandaroD
- 29Ivan TasevM
- 99Idris Bunas
- 9Jorge PadillaF
- 18Petar AndreevM
- 31Damyan HristovG
- 13Emanuil NyagolovD
- 93Georgi VentsislavovD
- 22Nikolay Petrov KostadinovM
- 33Georgi KitanovG
- 39Andre AlvesD
- 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
- 22Stojan PredevD
- 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
- 14Radoslav ApostolovM
- 44Vladan VidakovićM
- 24Stefan GavrilovM
- 11Denislav MinchevF
- 10Kristiyan BachevM
- 9Alexander Valino NavasalF
- 51Ilker BudinovD
- 18Ibrahim KeitaF
- 4Jose CabarcasD
- 69Plamen PepelyashevG
- 6Stanislav YovkovD
- 19Stefan StefanovM
- 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
- L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Vratsa19 July 2026
Dunav Ruse
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv16 August 2026
- L0-2Arda Kardzhali8 August 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
- L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
- L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse
- 21 August 2026Cherno More Varna 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 11 July 2026Cherno More Varna 1–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 1 February 2025Cherno More Varna 2–1 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 10 July 2024Cherno More Varna 4–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 7 February 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
- 5 July 2023Dunav Ruse 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFriendlies Clubs
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.