Spartak Varna
vs
Septemvri Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 87% Spartak Varna, 9% draw, 4% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.15, 11.11 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 3.39, Septemvri Sofia 0.67.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Spartak Varna
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Septemvri Sofia
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Spartak Varna carry a model rating of 6.65 against 5.97 for Septemvri Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Spartak Varna D-W-W; Septemvri Sofia D-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.39 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.67 for Septemvri Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Varna rate 0.65 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Septemvri Sofia rate 0.47 and 2.76.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 4-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 87%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.39 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 0.67 for Septemvri Sofia. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.76 for Septemvri Sofia.