Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 0-1 Septemvri Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 90% Spartak Varna, 7% draw, 3% Septemvri Sofia — fair odds of 1.11, 14.29 and 33.33.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Varna at 90%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23Plamen IlievG
- 76David Valverde JuanM
- 45Joey TshitokuD
- 44Angel GranchovD
- 4Boris IvanovD
- 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 6Ricardo SousaM
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 70Ahmed AhmedovF
- 77Anton IvanovF
- 19Sámuel MajorM
- 7BuáM
- 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
- 99Georgi TrifonovF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 3Mateo Jurić-PetrašiloD
- 14Daniel PavlovD
- 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
- 12Vladimir IvanovG
- 13Kubrat OnashchiD
- 4Martin HristovD
- 26Valentine OzornwaforD
- 3Sebas WadeD
- 5Yoan BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 11Aleksandar DzhamovF
- 8Bozhidar PenchevD
- 29Frantzety HerardF
- 27André LiberalF
- 28Stoyan StoichkovM
- 33Galin IvanovM
- 7Edney RibeiroF
- 1Alexander RadkovG
- 15Petar GospodinovD
- 20Bozhidar TomovskiD
- 24Zahari AtanasovM
- 17Nicolas FontaineM
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Septemvri Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L0-3CSKA Sofia9 August 2026
- L0-3away to Levski Sofia1 August 2026
- L1-2away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 July 2026
- D1-1Arda Kardzhali18 July 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Varna scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Spartak Varna had three goals or more.
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Septemvri Sofia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
- 14 May 2026Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 16 April 2026Septemvri Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 7 November 2025Spartak Varna 1–4 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 16 March 2025Spartak Varna 4–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 30 September 2024Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Septemvri Sofia won 1–0 at Spartak Varna. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Varna at 90% and given a win for Septemvri Sofia 3%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 33 matches like this one. The goal: André Liberal 61' for Septemvri Sofia.