FC Thun
vs
Servette FC
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Thun 1–0 Servette FC
The model makes it 37% FC Thun, 32% draw, 31% Servette FC — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.19, Servette FC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Thun vs Servette FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are FC Thun wins, grey are draws, red are Servette FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Thun vs Servette FC
FC Thun
- L0-1Grasshoppers12 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Sion6 September 2026
- D0-0Lausanne2 September 2026
- W4-3away to FC St. Gallen30 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
Servette FC
- W1-0away to Lausanne13 September 2026
- L0-2FC St. Gallen6 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Lugano3 September 2026
- D1-1FC Luzern29 August 2026
- W2-1Grasshoppers8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Thun | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Servette FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Servette FC
- 8 February 2026Servette FC 1–3 FC ThunSuper League
- 8 November 2025Servette FC 0–1 FC ThunSuper League
- 18 October 2025FC Thun 3–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 27 October 2021FC Thun 4–1 Servette FCSchweizer Cup
- 22 July 2020FC Thun 5–1 Servette FCSuper League
- 2 February 2020Servette FC 2–0 FC ThunSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Thun and Servette FC
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Servette FC
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.47 for Servette FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for FC Thun and 0.99 for Servette FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.58 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Servette FC rate 0.58 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Servette FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Thun a 0.1% chance of the title and Servette FC 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC Thun against 0.99 for Servette FC. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.26 for Servette FC.