Bournemouth
vs
Brentford
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Bournemouth, 26% draw, 35% Brentford — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.92, Brentford 1.74.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Brentford
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs Brentford
Line-ups
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 8A. ScottM
- 37RayanM
- 19J. KluivertM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 7D. BrooksM
- 27A. TóthM
- 11B. DoakF
- 10R. ChristieM
- 4L. CookM
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 6J. SolerD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 1C. KelleherG
- 2A. HickeyD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 20K. AjerD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 39Gustavo GomesF
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 11D. OuattaraF
- 33M. KayodeD
- 25E. DioufD
- 3R. HenryD
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
Form going into Bournemouth vs Brentford
Bournemouth
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026
Brentford
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Brentford
- 12 September 2026Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordPremier League
- 3 March 2026Bournemouth 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 27 December 2025Brentford 4–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 26 August 2025Bournemouth 0–2 BrentfordLeague Cup
- 15 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 BrentfordPremier League
- 9 November 2024Brentford 3–2 BournemouthPremier League
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Brentford
Bournemouth
- M. Tavernier3 goals
Brentford
- K. Schade3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.92 goals for Bournemouth and 1.74 for Brentford; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kevin Schade 34' (Brentford), Justin Kluivert 38' (Bournemouth), Marcus Tavernier 52' (Bournemouth), Kevin Schade 56' (Brentford).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.74 for Brentford. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.24/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.34/0.95 for Brentford.