Bournemouth vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 32% Brentford — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs Brentford
Line-ups
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 8A. ScottM
- 37RayanM
- 19J. KluivertM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 7D. BrooksM
- 27A. TóthM
- 11B. DoakF
- 10R. ChristieM
- 4L. CookM
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 6J. SolerD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 1C. KelleherG
- 2A. HickeyD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 20K. AjerD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 39Gustavo GomesF
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 11D. OuattaraF
- 33M. KayodeD
- 25E. DioufD
- 3R. HenryD
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
Form going into Bournemouth vs Brentford
Bournemouth
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026
Brentford
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Brentford
- 3 March 2026Bournemouth 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 27 December 2025Brentford 4–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 26 August 2025Bournemouth 0–2 BrentfordLeague Cup
- 15 March 2025Bournemouth 1–2 BrentfordPremier League
- 9 November 2024Brentford 3–2 BournemouthPremier League
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Brentford
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier50
- Evanilson34
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth and Brentford drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Bournemouth at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Schade 34' for Brentford, Justin Kluivert 38' for Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier 52' for Bournemouth, Kevin Schade 56' for Brentford.