Heart of Midlothian
vs
Rapid Vienna
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 44% Heart of Midlothian, 28% draw, 28% Rapid Vienna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.36, Rapid Vienna 1.03.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heart of Midlothian
- W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Rapid Vienna
- W2-1away to Ried9 August 2026
- W1-0SCR Altach2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Heart of Midlothian
- Cláudio Braga1 goals2 assists
Rapid Vienna
- Moulaye Haïdara1 goals
- P. Dahl1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.34 for Rapid Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Heart of Midlothian L-W; Rapid Vienna W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.03 for Rapid Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid Vienna rate 0.51 and 1.44.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.03 for Rapid Vienna. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.44 for Rapid Vienna.