FC Copenhagen
vs
FC Iberia 1999
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Copenhagen 2–0 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 72% FC Copenhagen, 18% draw, 10% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 1.39, 5.56 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: FC Copenhagen 2.66, FC Iberia 1999 0.71.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Copenhagen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. FC Copenhagen's rating is built from 44 Danish Superliga matches and FC Iberia 1999's from 65 Erovnuli Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- FC Copenhagen are 2nd on 3 points from 1 game; FC Iberia 1999 are 34th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Copenhagen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Aarhus.
- FC Iberia 1999 have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Dila.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 72% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into FC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999
FC Copenhagen
- W3-0SC Braga15 October 2026
FC Iberia 1999
- L0-2away to St. Truiden15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Copenhagen and FC Iberia 1999
FC Copenhagen
GoalsAssists
- A. Cornelius52
- M. Elyounoussi43
- Robert41
FC Iberia 1999
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Copenhagen carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.34 for FC Iberia 1999. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.66 goals for FC Copenhagen and 0.71 for FC Iberia 1999. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Copenhagen rate 1.00 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.55 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for FC Copenhagen against 0.71 for FC Iberia 1999. FC Copenhagen's attack/defence rating is 1/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.54 for FC Iberia 1999.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often FC Copenhagen's most recent league matches and FC Iberia 1999's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Copenhagen at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, this season — FC Copenhagen in the Superliga, FC Iberia 1999 in the Erovnuli Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Copenhagen 11 in the Superliga, FC Iberia 1999 29 in the Erovnuli Liga.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); FC Copenhagen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Copenhagen
- vs Brondby8 Nov · Superligawin 56%
- at FC Nordsjaelland22 Nov · Superligawin 41%
FC Iberia 1999
- vs Gagra9 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 57%
- at Spaeri15 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.