22 July 2026, 01:00 UTC

Cruz Azul vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Cruz Azul 2-1 Puebla.

Before kick-off the model made it 76% Cruz Azul, 16% draw, 8% Puebla — fair odds of 1.32, 6.25 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruz Azul at 76% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽F. Monarrezassist: A. Herrera
L. Romero
37'
⚽L. Romeroassist: J. Marquez
44'
N. Ibanez
45+2'
56'
🔁A. Herreraout: C. Baltazar
56'
🔁L. Hernandezout: E. Mustre
🔁N. Ibanezout: A. Palavecino
58'
🔁G. Pioviout: W. Ditta
58'
🔁L. Romeroout: A. Garcia
67'
🔁G. Fernandezout: O. Campos
67'
🔁C. Rotondiout: C. Ebere
68'
77'
🔁A. Organistaout: A. Ramirez
78'
🔁K. Velascoout: B. Garnica
⚽C. Ebereassist: J. Paradela
82'
84'
A. Ramirez
87'
🔁S. Sanabriaout: M. Tomas
90+1'
E. Mustre
90+5'
F. Monarrez

Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Puebla

67%Possession33%
22Shots10
7On target4
7Corners3
1.31xG0.86

Goals against chances

Cruz Azul2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth
Puebla1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cruz Azul 4-2-2-2
  • 23Kevin MierG
  • 16Jeremy MárquezD
  • 33Gonzalo PioviD
  • 5Jesús OrozcoD
  • 29Carlos RotondiD
  • 6Erik LiraM
  • 19Carlos RodríguezM
  • 20José ParadelaM
  • 18Luka RomeroM
  • 7Nicolás IbáñezF
  • 21Gabriel FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 4Willer DittaD
  • 8Agustín PalavecinoM
  • 17Amaury GarciaM
  • 3Omar CamposD
  • 11Osinachi EbereF
  • 1Andrés GudiñoG
  • 12Alan MontesD
  • 22Jorge Rodarte BarraganD
  • 10Andres MontañoM
Coach: Joel Huiqui
Puebla 4-3-3
  • 28Daniel GutierrezG
  • 2Angel LeyvaD
  • 5Facundo AlmadaD
  • 4Juan Pablo VargasD
  • 7Fernando MonarrezD
  • 24Alejandro OrganistaM
  • 21Sergio SanabriaM
  • 3Alberto HerreraM
  • 26Kevin VelascoF
  • 9Luifer HernándezF
  • 11Emiliano GómezF
Substitutes
  • 22Carlos BaltazarM
  • 29Eduardo MustreF
  • 16Alonso RamirezM
  • 27Brayan GarnicaF
  • 10Mathías TomásM
  • 33Jesús RodríguezG
  • 15Óscar VillaD
  • 13Eduardo NavarroD
  • 8Omar MorenoF
Coach: Alberto Espigares

Form going into Cruz Azul vs Puebla

Cruz Azul

  • W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026

Puebla

  • W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Cruz Azul85031614+215
8Puebla7412109+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Puebla

  • 22 July 2026Cruz Azul 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 18 January 2026Cruz Azul 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
  • 1 November 2025Puebla 0–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 25 January 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 19 October 2024Puebla 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
  • 13 April 2024Puebla 0–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX

Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Puebla

Cruz Azul

  • J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
  • N. Ibáñez3 goals
  • J. Paradela2 goals4 assists

Puebla

  • E. Mustre3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.