Cruz Azul vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Cruz Azul 2-1 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 76% Cruz Azul, 16% draw, 8% Puebla — fair odds of 1.32, 6.25 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruz Azul at 76% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Puebla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Kevin MierG
- 16Jeremy MárquezD
- 33Gonzalo PioviD
- 5Jesús OrozcoD
- 29Carlos RotondiD
- 6Erik LiraM
- 19Carlos RodríguezM
- 20José ParadelaM
- 18Luka RomeroM
- 7Nicolás IbáñezF
- 21Gabriel FernándezF
- 4Willer DittaD
- 8Agustín PalavecinoM
- 17Amaury GarciaM
- 3Omar CamposD
- 11Osinachi EbereF
- 1Andrés GudiñoG
- 12Alan MontesD
- 22Jorge Rodarte BarraganD
- 10Andres MontañoM
- 28Daniel GutierrezG
- 2Angel LeyvaD
- 5Facundo AlmadaD
- 4Juan Pablo VargasD
- 7Fernando MonarrezD
- 24Alejandro OrganistaM
- 21Sergio SanabriaM
- 3Alberto HerreraM
- 26Kevin VelascoF
- 9Luifer HernándezF
- 11Emiliano GómezF
- 22Carlos BaltazarM
- 29Eduardo MustreF
- 16Alonso RamirezM
- 27Brayan GarnicaF
- 10Mathías TomásM
- 33Jesús RodríguezG
- 15Óscar VillaD
- 13Eduardo NavarroD
- 8Omar MorenoF
Form going into Cruz Azul vs Puebla
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 26 |
| 14 | Puebla | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Puebla
- 18 January 2026Cruz Azul 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 1 November 2025Puebla 0–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 25 January 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 19 October 2024Puebla 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 13 April 2024Puebla 0–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Puebla
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez52
- G. Fernández51
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruz Azul beat Puebla 2–1. The model had made a win for Cruz Azul its most likely outcome, at 76%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: F. Monarrez 28' for Puebla, L. Romero 44' for Cruz Azul, C. Ebere 82' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 1.31–0.86.