Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Toluca, 30% draw, 26% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo GonzalezG
- 2Diego BarbosaD
- 4Bruno MéndezD
- 13LuanD
- 17Brian GarcíaD
- 7Víctor GuzmánM
- 24Fernando Arce JuárezM
- 11HelinhoM
- 10Jesús Ricardo AnguloM
- 9Alexis VegaM
- 29Jorge DíazF
- 20Jesús GallardoD
- 5Franco RomeroM
- 8Nicolás CastroM
- 191Carlos CarrilloF
- 19Santiago SimónM
- 22Luis GarcíaG
- 6Federico PereiraD
- 25Everardo LópezD
- 3Antonio BriseñoD
- 1Keylor NavasG
- 2Pablo BennevendoD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 77Álvaro AnguloD
- 7Rodrigo LopezM
- 45Pedro ViteM
- 18Victor ArteagaM
- 21Uriel AntunaF
- 23JuninhoF
- 31Robert MoralesF
- 17Sebastián CórdovaM
- 22Alan MedinaF
- 24Antonio LeoneD
- 9Guillermo MartínezF
- 35Pablo LaraG
- 12Cristian CalderónD
- 199Kleber CarranzaD
- 34Angel AzuajeD
- 20Santiago TrigosM
Form going into Toluca vs Pumas UNAM
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 23 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Pumas UNAM
- 4 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 17 August 2025Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 30 January 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 6 October 2024Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 18 March 2024Toluca 3–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Pumas UNAM
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas70
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho81
- R. Morales44
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM won 2–1 at Toluca. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 44% and given a win for Pumas UNAM 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Diaz Price 14' for Toluca, V. Arteaga 57' for Pumas UNAM, S. Cordova 63' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 1.19–0.66.