22 July 2026, 03:05 UTC

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Toluca 1-2 Pumas UNAM.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Toluca, 30% draw, 26% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toluca at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Diaz Priceassist: Helinho
14'
Helinho
17'
46'
🔁P. Bennevendoout: S. Cordova
57'
⚽V. Arteagaassist: R. Morales
63'
⚽S. Cordovaassist: R. Lopez
🔁V. Guzmanout: N. Castro
66'
🔁J. Anguloout: F. Romero
66'
🔁A. Vegaout: J. Gallardo
66'
🔁B. A. Garcia Caprizoout: C. Carrillo
76'
80'
R. Lopez
🔁D. Barbosaout: S. Simon
86'
88'
🔁Juninhoout: A. Medina
90+1'
🔁R. Moralesout: G. Martinez
90+6'
🔁U. Antunaout: T. Leone

Match stats — Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

66%Possession34%
16Shots8
4On target3
9Corners1
1.19xG0.66

Goals against chances

Toluca1 from 1.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
Pumas UNAM2 from 0.66 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 1Hugo GonzalezG
  • 2Diego BarbosaD
  • 4Bruno MéndezD
  • 13LuanD
  • 17Brian GarcíaD
  • 7Víctor GuzmánM
  • 24Fernando Arce JuárezM
  • 11HelinhoM
  • 10Jesús Ricardo AnguloM
  • 9Alexis VegaM
  • 29Jorge DíazF
Substitutes
  • 20Jesús GallardoD
  • 5Franco RomeroM
  • 8Nicolás CastroM
  • 191Carlos CarrilloF
  • 19Santiago SimónM
  • 22Luis GarcíaG
  • 6Federico PereiraD
  • 25Everardo LópezD
  • 3Antonio BriseñoD
Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
Pumas UNAM 4-3-3
  • 1Keylor NavasG
  • 2Pablo BennevendoD
  • 6Nathan SilvaD
  • 5Rubén DuarteD
  • 77Álvaro AnguloD
  • 7Rodrigo LopezM
  • 45Pedro ViteM
  • 18Victor ArteagaM
  • 21Uriel AntunaF
  • 23JuninhoF
  • 31Robert MoralesF
Substitutes
  • 17Sebastián CórdovaM
  • 22Alan MedinaF
  • 24Antonio LeoneD
  • 9Guillermo MartínezF
  • 35Pablo LaraG
  • 12Cristian CalderónD
  • 199Kleber CarranzaD
  • 34Angel AzuajeD
  • 20Santiago TrigosM
Coach: Esteban Solari

Form going into Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

Toluca

  • W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026

Pumas UNAM

  • L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Toluca7511176+1116
11Pumas UNAM83231112-111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Pumas UNAM

  • 22 July 2026Toluca 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 4 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 17 August 2025Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 30 January 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
  • 6 October 2024Toluca 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
  • 18 March 2024Toluca 3–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX

Leading scorers: Toluca and Pumas UNAM

Toluca

  • F. Viñas3 goals

Pumas UNAM

  • Juninho4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.