Regular Season - 21 · 12 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Full time2 – 1

Final score: IFK Goteborg 2-1 Halmstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% IFK Goteborg, 28% draw, 35% Halmstad — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.52, Halmstad 1.45.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IFK Goteborg at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IFK Goteborg97%Draw3%Halmstad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Hussein Carneil
⚽Sam Larsson
37'
38'
Tom Trybull
45'
🔁Erko Tougjasout: Joel Allansson
⚽Felix Erikssonassist: Noah Tolf
52'
Noah Tolf
60'
🔁Nino Žugeljout: Alfons Borén
65'
71'
🔁Ajdin Zeljkovicout: Malte Persson
71'
🔁Erik Ludvig Arvidssonout: Marvin Illary
73'
⚽Rocco Ascone (pen)
🔁oliver manssonout: Kolbeinn Thordarson
76'
🔁Alexander Simmelhackout: Max Johannes Whitta Fenger
76'
79'
🔁Hussein Carneilout: Omar Faraj
Alfons Borén
82'
🔁Sam Larssonout: Kevin Ackermann
88'
90+6'
🔁Malte Perssonout: Filip·Schyberg

Match stats — IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad

48%Possession52%
15Shots9
7On target3
8Corners9

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg 4-3-3
  • 12V. AnderssonG
  • 18F. ErikssonD
  • 5J. BagerD
  • 6H. HermannssonD
  • 22Noah TolfD
  • 24O. ManssonM
  • 15D. KruseM
  • 8S. LarssonM
  • 11N. ŽugeljF
  • 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
  • 14T. HeintzF
Substitutes
  • 4K. AckermannM
  • 25E. BishesariG
  • 27A. BorénF
  • 26E. FasthM
  • 9M. FengerF
  • 21L. RadakovicM
  • 28I. SeiduD
  • 23K. ÞórðarsonM
  • 20G. ErsoyD
Coach: Joachim Björklund
Halmstad 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. RönningG
  • 17A. BomanD
  • 5P. GregorD
  • 3G. WallentinD
  • 24R. KaibD
  • 16E. TõugjasM
  • 28T. TrybullM
  • 11L. ArvidssonM
  • 27R. AsconeM
  • 14H. CarneilM
  • 23A. ZeljkovicF
Substitutes
  • 9O. FarajF
  • 19M. IllaryM
  • 22Oliver KapsimalisF
  • 8N. MäenpääM
  • 18Malte PerssonF
  • 4F. SchybergD
  • 25A. Damnjanovic NilssonM
  • 6J. AllanssonM
  • 35A. WihedG
Coach: S. Baxter

Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad

IFK Goteborg

  • W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
  • W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
  • D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Degerfors IF16 August 2026

Halmstad

  • L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Orgryte IS22 August 2026
  • L0-1away to BK Hacken17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9IFK Goteborg218583041-1129
16Halmstad2125141439-2511

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Halmstad

  • 12 September 2026IFK Goteborg 2–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 18 April 2026Halmstad 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 26 October 2025Halmstad 0–3 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 5 April 2025IFK Goteborg 1–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 23 September 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
  • 7 April 2024Halmstad 1–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Halmstad

IFK Goteborg

  • S. Larsson7 goals2 assists
  • T. Heintz6 goals5 assists

Halmstad

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.45 for Halmstad; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Sam Larsson 37' (IFK Goteborg), Felix Eriksson 52' (IFK Goteborg), Rocco Ascone 73' (Halmstad).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IFK Goteborg the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.45 for Halmstad. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.58 for Halmstad.