Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 24% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crystal Palace at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Line-ups
- 44W. BenítezG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaF
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 10Yeremy PinoF
- 43S. WilliamsM
- 6J. CanvotD
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 11D. McNeilF
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 9E. NketiahF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 7I. SarrF
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 27W. MońkaD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 9M. IshakF
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 4João MoutinhoD
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 20R. GumnyD
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 7Y. AgneroF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
Lech Poznan
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
- W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
- W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026
- D2-2away to FC Thun27 August 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 4 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace
GoalsAssists
- Yeremy Pino30
Lech Poznan
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Crystal Palace beat Lech Poznan 4–0. The model had made a win for Crystal Palace its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Yeremy Pino 10' for Crystal Palace, Chris Richards 27' for Crystal Palace, Jörgen Strand Larsen (penalty) 34' for Crystal Palace, Eddie Nketiah 89' for Crystal Palace. Sent off: Radosław Murawski (Lech Poznan) 87'.
How the call on Crystal Palace v Lech Poznan has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 52% / 27% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Crystal Palace win51%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Lech Poznan win24%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.