Lillestrom vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lillestrom, 24% draw, 40% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Rosenborg at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Pontus DahlbergG
- 2Lars RangerD
- 28Ruben GabrielsenD
- 47Stian KristiansenD
- 11Frederik ElkærD
- 7Karl Linus AlperudM
- 29Ylldren IbrahimajM
- 18Kevin Martin KrygardM
- 14Gustav Kjolstad NyheimM
- 20Felix VáM
- 10Thomas Lehne OlsenF
- 77Fredrik GulbrandsenF
- 15Gustav NordhF
- 6Harald WoxenM
- 1Stephan HagerupG
- 26Yaw PaintsilM
- 3Sturla OttesenD
- 22John KitolanoD
- 5Sander Moen FossD
- 25Seun AkanjiM
- 1Leopold WahlstedtG
- 22Jonas SvenssonD
- 4Mikkel Konradsen CeideD
- 21Tomáš NemčíkD
- 19Adrian Nilsen PereiraD
- 10Ole SelnaesM
- 11Noah SahsahM
- 17Mads BomholtM
- 29Dávid ĎurišM
- 35Emil Konradsen CeideM
- 18Amin ChiakhaF
- 16Aslak WitryD
- 15Jonas MortensenD
- 3Tobias Solheim DahlD
- 14Jesper Reitan-SundeF
- 12Rasmus SandbergG
- 5Håkon VoldenD
- 25Johan Johanessen BakkeM
- 28Elias SlordalM
- 30Maciej SoboczynskiF
Form going into Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
Lillestrom
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
Rosenborg
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lillestrom | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 45 |
| 3 | Rosenborg | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
- 10 May 2026Rosenborg 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 15 September 2024Lillestrom 1–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 21 August 2024Rosenborg 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 24 September 2023Lillestrom 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 9 July 2023Rosenborg 1–2 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Rosenborg
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- Vá85
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha184
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rosenborg won 2–0 at Lillestrom. The model had made a win for Rosenborg its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Noah Sahsah 39' for Rosenborg, Amin Chiakha 90' for Rosenborg. On expected goals it finished 2.51–2.28.