Lillestrom
vs
Rosenborg
The model makes it 36% Lillestrom, 24% draw, 40% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.59, Rosenborg 1.69.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lillestrom
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
- W2-0away to Fredrikstad11 July 2026
- L0-2away to Ham-Kam25 May 2026
Rosenborg
- L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
- W3-0Kristiansund BK12 July 2026
- D2-2Bodo/Glimt29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lillestrom | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 25 |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lillestrom vs Rosenborg
- 10 May 2026Rosenborg 2–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 15 September 2024Lillestrom 1–1 RosenborgEliteserien
- 21 August 2024Rosenborg 4–0 LillestromEliteserien
- 24 September 2023Lillestrom 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien
- 9 July 2023Rosenborg 1–2 LillestromEliteserien
- 18 September 2022Rosenborg 3–1 LillestromEliteserien
Leading scorers
Lillestrom
No league goals recorded yet.
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha7 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.67 for Rosenborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lillestrom L-W-W-L-L; Rosenborg D-W-W-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Lillestrom and 1.69 for Rosenborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.62 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosenborg rate 0.93 and 1.36.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lillestrom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.69 for Rosenborg. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.36 for Rosenborg.