Ilves
vs
Mariehamn
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Before kick-off the model made it 95% Ilves, 4% draw, 1% Mariehamn — fair odds of 1.05, 25.00 and 100.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ilves 4.72, Mariehamn 0.60.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ilves
- L0-1away to AC Oulu2 August 2026
- W1-0Lahti26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Turku PS20 July 2026
- L1-2away to FF Jaro4 July 2026
Mariehamn
- L0-3away to Turku PS1 August 2026
- D1-1AC Oulu25 July 2026
- L0-2Lahti20 July 2026
- L2-4away to Gnistan11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ilves | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 18 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 39 | -30 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ilves
- J. Kanga4 goals3 assists
- T. Hytönen4 goals
Mariehamn
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ilves the highest probability at 95%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.72 expected goals for Ilves against 0.6 for Mariehamn. Ilves's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.28/2.84 for Mariehamn.