AC Oulu
vs
HJK Helsinki
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: AC Oulu 0-1 HJK Helsinki.
Before kick-off the model made it 80% AC Oulu, 11% draw, 9% HJK Helsinki — fair odds of 1.25, 9.09 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: AC Oulu 3.76, HJK Helsinki 1.33.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 88%, under 2.5: 12%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
AC Oulu
- W1-0Ilves2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Mariehamn25 July 2026
- L0-2Gnistan18 July 2026
- L0-3away to Turku PS11 July 2026
- D1-1Lahti27 June 2026
HJK Helsinki
- L0-3away to SJK3 August 2026
- W1-0Turku PS26 July 2026
- W2-1VPS18 July 2026
- L0-2away to Lahti11 July 2026
- L0-4KuPS27 June 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AC Oulu | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 30 |
| 6 | HJK Helsinki | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full tables
Leading scorers
AC Oulu
No league goals recorded yet.
HJK Helsinki
- T. Pukki3 goals2 assists
- M. Borchers3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Oulu the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.76 expected goals for AC Oulu against 1.33 for HJK Helsinki. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.88/3.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/2.26 for HJK Helsinki.