Lillestrom
vs
Fredrikstad
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 58% Lillestrom, 23% draw, 19% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.87, Fredrikstad 0.97.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lillestrom
- D1-1away to KFUM Oslo15 August 2026
- L0-2Rosenborg9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Bodo/Glimt31 July 2026
- L1-2Viking22 July 2026
- W2-1KFUM Oslo18 July 2026
Fredrikstad
- W1-0away to Start8 August 2026
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 26 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.41 for Fredrikstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lillestrom W-L-L-L-D; Fredrikstad L-L-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for Lillestrom and 0.97 for Fredrikstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.71 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fredrikstad rate 0.57 and 1.39.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lillestrom the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Lillestrom against 0.97 for Fredrikstad. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.39 for Fredrikstad.