Start
vs
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 59% Start, 21% draw, 20% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Start 2.14, KFUM Oslo 1.19.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Start
- L0-1Fredrikstad8 August 2026
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Kristiansund BK25 July 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 July 2026
- L1-2away to Brann12 July 2026
KFUM Oslo
- D1-1Lillestrom15 August 2026
- W1-0away to Sandefjord7 August 2026
- W2-1Kristiansund BK2 August 2026
- L2-4Molde26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Lillestrom18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Start carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.33 for KFUM Oslo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Start L-L-W-L-L; KFUM Oslo L-L-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Start and 1.19 for KFUM Oslo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Start rate 0.69 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KFUM Oslo rate 0.58 and 1.64.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour KFUM Oslo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Start the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Start against 1.19 for KFUM Oslo. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.64 for KFUM Oslo.