Bodo/Glimt
vs
Rosenborg
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 58% Bodo/Glimt, 21% draw, 21% Rosenborg — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 2.14, Rosenborg 1.22.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bodo/Glimt
- W2-1away to Valerenga8 August 2026
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
Rosenborg
- W2-1Viking14 August 2026
- W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026
- L2-3away to Brann2 August 2026
- W4-0Fredrikstad27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Start18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | +31 | 41 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Bodo/Glimt
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
- A. Helmersen6 goals1 assists
Rosenborg
- Amin Chiakha9 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bodo/Glimt carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.68 for Rosenborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Bodo/Glimt W-W-W-W-W; Rosenborg W-W-L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.22 for Rosenborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodo/Glimt rate 0.87 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosenborg rate 0.92 and 1.30.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodo/Glimt a 75.5% chance of the title and Rosenborg 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt against 1.22 for Rosenborg. Bodo/Glimt's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.3 for Rosenborg.