Ham-Kam
vs
Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 56% Ham-Kam, 24% draw, 20% Kristiansund BK — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 1.86, Kristiansund BK 1.04.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ham-Kam
- D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026
- W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
Kristiansund BK
- W2-1Molde9 August 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo2 August 2026
- L1-2Start25 July 2026
- D0-0Sarpsborg 08 FF18 July 2026
- L0-3away to Rosenborg12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 22 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Ham-Kam
No league goals recorded yet.
Kristiansund BK
- L. Alvheim6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ham-Kam carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.28 for Kristiansund BK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Ham-Kam L-L-L-W-D; Kristiansund BK L-D-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Ham-Kam and 1.04 for Kristiansund BK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ham-Kam rate 0.60 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kristiansund BK rate 0.52 and 1.64.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ham-Kam the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 1.04 for Kristiansund BK. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.64 for Kristiansund BK.