IFK Goteborg
vs
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan prediction
The model makes it 84% IFK Goteborg, 10% draw, 6% Orgryte IS — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 3.47, Orgryte IS 0.93.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%, under 2.5: 19%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IFK Goteborg
- W3-2Kalmar FF9 August 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF2 August 2026
- L1-4away to Sirius26 July 2026
- W2-1IF Brommapojkarna17 July 2026
- L0-4away to Malmo FF12 July 2026
Orgryte IS
- L3-4AIK Stockholm8 August 2026
- W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
- D0-0Djurgardens IF20 July 2026
- W4-3BK Hacken11 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | IFK Goteborg | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 19 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
IFK Goteborg
No league goals recorded yet.
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.09 for Orgryte IS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): IFK Goteborg L-W-L-W-W; Orgryte IS W-D-L-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.47 goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.93 for Orgryte IS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.83 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Orgryte IS rate 0.48 and 2.21.
That points to 81% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 4-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IFK Goteborg the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.47 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 0.93 for Orgryte IS. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.21 for Orgryte IS.