Tromso
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 43% Tromso, 25% draw, 32% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Tromso 1.66, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.41.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Tromso
- W6-2away to Aalesund2 August 2026
- W4-1away to Ham-Kam18 July 2026
- W4-0Valerenga11 July 2026
- D0-0away to KFUM Oslo29 May 2026
- D1-1Aalesund25 May 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
- W1-0Viking12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 17 | +15 | 34 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Tromso
- H. Larsen7 goals2 assists
- J. Hjertø-Dahl7 goals2 assists
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tromso carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.57 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Tromso D-D-W-W-W; Sarpsborg 08 FF W-D-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Tromso and 1.41 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tromso rate 0.68 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.74 and 1.29.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tromso a 1.3% chance of the title and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tromso the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Tromso against 1.41 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Tromso's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.29 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.