9 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Libertad vs Leones del Norte Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne, Loja
Referee: Augusto Bergelio Aragon Bautista
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Libertad 3-0 Leones del Norte.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Libertad, 28% draw, 26% Leones del Norte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Libertad at 46% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Libertad99%Draw1%Leones del Norte0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Elvis Patta
26'
45+1'
Charles Velez
65'
🔁Cristhian Solanoout: Dario Pazmino
65'
🔁Charles Velezout: Thomas Amilivia
⚽Vilinton German Branda Merlinassist: Edu Pineda
67'
🔁Antony Chereout: Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
71'
81'
🔁Alexis Nicolás Monserratout: Martín Caramuto
81'
🔁Maiky de la Cruzout: Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
🔁Gabriel Cortezout: D. Coronel
81'
🔁Vilinton German Branda Merlinout: Carlos Orejuela
81'
85'
🔁T. Coppoout: Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo
⚽Edu Pineda
88'
🔁Edu Pinedaout: Johan Estacio
89'
90+1'
Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo

Match stats — Libertad vs Leones del Norte

46%Possession54%
15Shots17
7On target4
4Corners7
2.12xG1.03

Goals against chances

Libertad3 from 2.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Leones del Norte0 from 1.03 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Libertad 5-4-1
  • 12D. CabezasG
  • 17E. PattaD
  • 6B. CaicedoD
  • 2R. MorinigoD
  • 19O. QuiñónezD
  • 20J. RodríguezD
  • 70Vilinton Germán Branda MerlínM
  • 30J. BravoM
  • 80X. PinedaM
  • 10G. CortézM
  • 33A. ChéreF
Substitutes
  • 8Stick Carlos Castro PalmaM
  • 49D. CoronelF
  • 9E. CaicedoF
  • 27S. Bueno QuinonezM
  • 66J. EstacioM
  • 5C. GruezoM
  • 23J. GuisamanoM
  • 25M. LucasD
  • 1P. MinaG
Coach: Jorge Célico
Leones del Norte 5-3-2
  • 22J. ArroyoG
  • 7M. LuqueD
  • 2J. MoránD
  • 23N. MonserratD
  • 25B. KreimanD
  • 16M. de la CruzD
  • 8C. VelezM
  • 5T. CoppoM
  • 6Emiliano GriffaM
  • 99C. SolanoF
  • 40Juan Luis Anangonó LeónF
Substitutes
  • 17T. AmiliviaF
  • 18J. ArellanoD
  • 4R. ArroyoD
  • 55R. BorjaM
  • 13O. CabezaM
  • 50Miguel Yordan Caicedo OrobioD
  • 11M. CaramutoM
  • 14A. RosalesD
  • 45M. RamírezG
Coach: M. Córdoba

Head-to-head: Libertad vs Leones del Norte

  • 4 July 2026Libertad 1–3 Leones del NorteLiga Pro
  • 28 February 2026Leones del Norte 1–1 LibertadLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Libertad and Leones del Norte

Libertad

GoalsAssists

  • Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín101

Leones del Norte

GoalsAssists

  • Juan Luis Anangonó León100

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.