Independiente del Valle vs Aucas Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Independiente del Valle, 21% draw, 17% Aucas — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente del Valle at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. QuintanaG
- 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
- 14M. CarabajalD
- 5R. SchunkeD
- 19L. LoorD
- 6J. AlcívarM
- 11M. PerellóM
- 28H. QuintanaM
- 10J. SornozaM
- 31Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezM
- 9C. GonzálezF
- 15G. CortézD
- 18Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosF
- 32J. MéndezM
- 8Y. OchoaM
- 70M. PeraltaG
- 56E. QuinteroM
- 57H. QuinteroM
- 99D. ReascoF
- 33Andy René Velasco GarcíaD
- 13Hamilton Emanuel Piedra OrdóñezG
- 28R. QuiñónezD
- 37A. ZovaD
- 14S. TapieroD
- 2S. MoralesD
- 31B. CarabalíD
- 21P. GuzmánM
- 6A. SpinaM
- 18Andrés David Mena MontenegroM
- 10A. PreciadoM
- 29Luis Aldair Arroyo CabezaF
- 17C. ZambranoF
- 57M. VeraF
- 5ThiagoM
- 30B. OyolaF
- 9R. Monti AzpiazuF
- 1I. ChavesG
- 4M. BurdissoD
- 11A. BolañosF
- 7J. AndradeF
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Independiente del Valle
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barcelona SC3 September 2026
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito29 August 2026
Aucas
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito3 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente del Valle scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Independiente del Valle conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Independiente del Valle had three goals or more.
- Aucas did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Aucas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aucas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 31 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 34 | +41 | 77 |
| 5 | Aucas | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
- 16 July 2026Aucas 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 March 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 AucasLiga Pro
- 19 July 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 28 March 2025Aucas 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 1 September 2024Aucas 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 24 March 2024Independiente del Valle 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Aucas
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- D. Reasco94
- C. González90
- M. Perelló83
Aucas
GoalsAssists
- A. Preciado63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.