9 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Jocay, Manta
Referee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Delfin SC 3-2 Mushuc Runa SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Delfin SC, 31% draw, 35% Mushuc Runa SC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mushuc Runa SC at 35% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Delfin SC97%Draw3%Mushuc Runa SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
José Hernández
31'
⚽Renso Tufinoassist: Tomson Minda
35'
⚽Ronny Biojóassist: Miguel Perea
⚽Jefferson Arceassist: Danny Luna
41'
⚽Erick Zunigaassist: Danny Luna
45'
•Danny Luna
45+4'
48'
Cristopher Angulo
•Franco Ayunta
55'
Franco Ayunta
56'
62'
🔁Renso Tufinoout: Elian Caicedo
62'
🔁Freddy Minaout: Jackson Alexander González Simisterra
63'
🔁Arnaldo Zambranoout: Bryan Corozo
🔁Gerónimo Herediaout: Luis Armando Castro Garzón
66'
🔁Jefferson Arceout: Kevin Ushina
66'
75'
🔁Tomson Mindaout: Lucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldi
75'
🔁Nicolás Davilaout: Kevin Peralta
🔁Bryan Hernandezout: Maikel Reyes
81'
⚽Maikel Reyesassist: Luis Armando Castro Garzón
87'
Maikel Reyes
87'
🔁Jonathan Morochoout: Emerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio
90+1'
🔁Danny Lunaout: Darío Aimar
90+1'

Match stats — Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

70%Possession30%
17Shots11
7On target5
2Corners7
1.93xG0.91

Goals against chances

Delfin SC3 from 1.93 xGmore than the chances were worth
Mushuc Runa SC2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Delfin SC 4-2-3-1
  • 21B. HerasG
  • 77B. HernándezD
  • 32A. BedoyaD
  • 5O. MedinaD
  • 14E. ZúñigaD
  • 34G. HerediaM
  • 18J. MorochoM
  • 31Jefferson Stalin Arce MinaM
  • 10Danny Gabriel Luna MoránM
  • 50T. OzaetaM
  • 9F. AyuntaF
Substitutes
  • 78K. UshiñaM
  • 99Leao TenorioF
  • 11F. PerincioloM
  • 8K. MorenoM
  • 70E. EspinozaM
  • 22J. CárdenasG
  • 23L. CornejoM
  • 55M. ReyesD
  • 16L. CastroM
Coach: Juan Carlos León
Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
  • 25R. FormentoG
  • 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
  • 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  • 30F. CarabalíD
  • 33M. HernándezD
  • 10F. MinaM
  • 8A. ZambranoM
  • 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  • 28M. PereaM
  • 9R. TufinoF
  • 7T. MindaF
Substitutes
  • 61J. CaicedoF
  • 14E. CaicedoF
  • 19B. CorozoM
  • 50J. CusmeD
  • 2J. FlorD
  • 18J. GonzalezM
  • 52D. MerinoM
  • 23L. LemosM
  • 42W. PabónG
Coach: P. Vélez

Form going into Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

Delfin SC

  • D1-1away to Tecnico Universitario20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Barcelona SC13 September 2026
  • L0-1Universidad Catolica Quito6 September 2026
  • W1-0Tecnico Universitario1 September 2026

Mushuc Runa SC

  • D1-1away to Deportivo Cuenca20 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Guayaquil City FC12 September 2026
  • D1-1Leones del Norte8 September 2026
  • D0-0away to LDU de Quito2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 4 matches for Delfin SC had two goals or fewer.
  • Delfin SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Delfin SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Mushuc Runa SC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Delfin SC3288162334-1132
11Mushuc Runa SC32912113842-439

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

  • 28 August 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 3 May 2026Delfin SC 1–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 15 June 2025Delfin SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 18 February 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
  • 8 November 2024Delfin SC 4–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 19 May 2024Mushuc Runa SC 5–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC

Delfin SC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ayunta81

Mushuc Runa SC

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.