Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chicago Fire, 26% draw, 29% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Chicago Fire at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 19J. BambaM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 32N. AllenD
- 44J. CohenG
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 18J. GómezF
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 35S. OregelM
- 22M. PinedaD
- 29D. PorębaM
- 15A. GutmanD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 9B. TraoréF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 88M. JonesF
Form going into Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Chicago Fire
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
New York City FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 64 | 54 | +10 | 55 |
| 11 | New York City FC | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
- 25 July 2026New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Chicago Fire 1–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024New York City FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and New York City FC
Chicago Fire
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 64 league goals as a side.
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau166
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chicago Fire beat New York City FC 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Chicago Fire at 45%. The goals: Hannes Wolf 19' for New York City FC, Anton Saletros 55' for Chicago Fire, Maren Haile-Selassie 87' for Chicago Fire. Sent off: Djé D'Avilla (Chicago Fire) 43'. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chicago Fire a 69.5% chance to finish in the top four: 79.8% after a win, 65.3% after a draw, 57.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.8%, 10.3 points higher than before the match.
For New York City FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.0% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.5% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Chicago Fire v New York City FC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Chicago Fire's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Chicago Fire win45%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- New York City FC win29%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.