Chicago Fire
vs
New York City FC
Major League Soccer prediction
Our model says: Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC
The model makes it 40% Chicago Fire, 28% draw, 32% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.63, New York City FC 1.33.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Chicago Fire
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution13 September 2026
- D1-1Inter Miami10 September 2026
- D4-4away to Toronto FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Seattle Sounders29 August 2026
New York City FC
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
- L1-2New England Revolution10 September 2026
- D0-0Nashville SC4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Toronto FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Chicago Fire did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- New York City FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for New York City FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
- 25 July 2026New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and New York City FC
Chicago Fire
- H. Cuypers13 goals
New York City FC
- N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chicago Fire carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.56 for New York City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.33 for New York City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chicago Fire rate 0.78 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; New York City FC rate 0.63 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chicago Fire the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Chicago Fire against 1.33 for New York City FC. Chicago Fire's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.15 for New York City FC.