10 October 2026, 21:30 UTC

Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec Liga Pro prediction & result

Guayaquil

Referee: Oswaldo Contreras

Full time3 – 2

Final score: Guayaquil City FC 3-2 Emelec.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Guayaquil City FC, 27% draw, 25% Emelec — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published 10 October 2026 · updated 14 October 2026

All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Guayaquil City FC at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Guayaquil City FC5%Draw92%Emelec3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'

⚽Ronie Carrilloassist: Reixon David Saya Paredes

45+1'

⚽Ronie Carrilloassist: Orlando Herrera

🔁S Laurinoout: Pablo Mancilla

45'

Dixon Arroyo

50'

53'

Angelo Mina

57'

Ronie Carrillo

⚽Diego Dorregarayassist: P. González

62'

•Dixon Arroyo

68'

⚽Diego Dorregaray (pen)

71'

72'

🔁Ronie Carrilloout: Luca Klimowicz

72'

🔁Teodoro Arceout: Gonzalo Nápoli

P. González

72'

76'

🔁Ignacio Guerricoout: Ariel Mina

76'

🔁Jefferson Valverdeout: Víctor Griffith

🔁Dixon Arroyoout: Kevin Sambonino

83'

90'

Jaime Ayoví

•Janvier Yardely Rodríguez López

90'

⚽Diego Dorregaray (pen)

90+1'

90+3'

🔁Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomezout: luis Fragozo

🔁Kevin Samboninoout: Anderson Naula

90+4'

🔁Junior Ayoviout: Esnaider Cabezas

90+8'

🔁Erick Patricio Ladines Calvacheout: Joshue·Quinonez

90+8'

Match stats — Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec

49%Possession51%

13Shots14

6On target3

5Corners3

2.42xG1.52

Goals against chances

Guayaquil City FC3 from 2.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Emelec2 from 1.52 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Guayaquil City FC 4-2-3-1

30J. PinosG
33R. CaicedoD
3Y. RodríguezD
4E. LadinesD
6R. AriasD
14D. ArroyoM
20S. LaurinoM
80P. GonzálezM
17J. AyoviM
21D. DorregarayM
11E. MeroF

Substitutes

70P. MancillaD
1G. NapaG
19A. NaulaM
16J. OrdóñezM
7J. CaicedoF
9M. PalmaF
12Rodrigo Ramiro Perea SalazarG
29J. QuiñónezD
50F. RivadeneiraM

Coach: P. Gavilánez

Emelec 4-4-2

12P. OrtízG
80O. HerreraD
27F. LeónD
4E. SeguraD
3I. GuerricoD
19J. RuízM
5A. MinaM
32J. ValverdeM
59Reixon SayaM
9R. CarrilloF
11S. ArceF

Substitutes

13Luis Fernando Gómez AnguloD
17J. AyovíF
26I. CueroM
15Luis FragozoF
6V. GriffithM
7L. KlimowiczF
30Madison Ariel Mina IbarraD
8G. NápoliM
10F. PizziniF

Coach: Ezequiel Medrán

Head-to-head: Guayaquil City FC vs Emelec

10 August 2026Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
18 April 2026Emelec 1–3 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
22 October 2025Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecCopa Ecuador
4 November 2023Guayaquil City FC 0–0 EmelecLiga Pro
30 May 2023Emelec 0–0 Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
12 February 2023Emelec 2–0 Guayaquil City FCFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Guayaquil City FC and Emelec