17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Celtic 1-3 Ferencvarosi TC.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Celtic, 28% draw, 24% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celtic at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celtic0%Draw1%Ferencvarosi TC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Bamidele Isa Yusufassist: Kristoffer Zachariassen
⚽Mika Baurassist: Kieran Tierney
44'
45+1'
⚽Kristoffer Zachariassenassist: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
🔁Oliver Sorensenout: Kasper Hogh
45'
45'
🔁Olivér Nagyout: Attila Osváth
47'
⚽Daniel Arzaniassist: Bamidele Isa Yusuf
🔁James Forrestout: Sebastian Tounekti
57'
🔁Haissem Hassanout: Benjamin Nygren
57'
66'
🔁Bamidele Isa Yusufout: Jonathan Levi
66'
🔁Daniel Arzaniout: Callum O'Dowda
🔁Mika Baurout: Luke McCowan
66'
71'
🔁Ádám Gyula Bagiout: Krisztian Lisztes
🔁Colby Donovanout: Anthony Ralston
80'
81'
🔁Mariano Gómezout: Nathan Zohore
86'
Jonathan Levi
87'
Attila Osváth

Match stats — Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC

63%Possession37%
16Shots14
4On target6
11Corners3

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 51Colby DonovanD
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 5L. ScalesD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 22M. BaurM
  • 23H. HassanM
  • 18O. SørensenM
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 11C. DuránF
Substitutes
  • 31R. DoohanG
  • 6A. TrustyD
  • 17S. TounektiF
  • 56A. RalstonD
  • 8B. NygrenF
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 14L. McCowanM
  • 3J. LotombaD
  • 26S. JohnstoneG
Coach: M. O'Neill
Ferencvarosi TC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Á. VargaG
  • 54O. NagyD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 4M. GómezD
  • 20CaduD
  • 6Á. NagyM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 11B. YusufM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 15D. ArzaniM
  • 18Á. BagiF
Substitutes
  • 5G. ZohoréD
  • 22M. BeroM
  • 7V. BirmančevićF
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 8N. KeïtaM
  • 19F. KovačevićF
  • 71C. LakatosD
  • 10J. LeviF
  • 76K. LisztesF
Coach: B. Borbely

Form going into Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC

Celtic

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
  • W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
  • W2-1Falkirk29 August 2026
  • L1-5away to Lask Linz25 August 2026

Ferencvarosi TC

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Puskas Academy30 August 2026
  • W4-0Trabzonspor27 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Trabzonspor20 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Zalaegerszegi TE17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Celtic scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Celtic won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Celtic had three goals or more.
  • Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
35Celtic300339-60
4Ferencvarosi TC330093+69

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Ferencvarosi TC

  • 4 November 2021Ferencvarosi TC 2–3 CelticUEFA Europa League
  • 19 October 2021Celtic 2–0 Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League
  • 26 August 2020Celtic 1–2 Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Celtic and Ferencvarosi TC

Celtic

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Ferencvarosi TC

GoalsAssists

  • K. Zachariassen32
  • B. Yusuf22
  • L. Joseph21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ferencvarosi TC won 3–1 at Celtic. The model had leaned towards a win for Celtic at 48% and given a win for Ferencvarosi TC 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bamidele Isa Yusuf 20' for Ferencvarosi TC, Mika Baur 44' for Celtic, Kristoffer Zachariassen 45+1' for Ferencvarosi TC, Daniel Arzani 47' for Ferencvarosi TC.

How the call on Celtic v Ferencvarosi TC has moved

First published on 3 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Celtic win48%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Ferencvarosi TC win24%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.