Sonderjyske
vs
Viborg
The model makes it 37% Sonderjyske, 25% draw, 38% Viborg — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.58, Viborg 1.62.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sonderjyske
- L0-1away to Odense3 August 2026
- L2-3FC Midtjylland26 July 2026
Viborg
- L0-1away to Brondby2 August 2026
- W1-0Odense24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Viborg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sonderjyske vs Viborg
- 8 May 2026Viborg 0–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 12 April 2026Sonderjyske 0–2 ViborgSuperliga
- 28 November 2025Sonderjyske 2–2 ViborgSuperliga
- 8 August 2025Viborg 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 27 April 2025Sonderjyske 2–2 ViborgSuperliga
- 6 April 2025Viborg 2–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
The two sides
Sonderjyske carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.62 for Viborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Sonderjyske L-L; Viborg W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Sonderjyske and 1.62 for Viborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sonderjyske rate 0.63 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viborg rate 0.83 and 1.33.
That points to 62% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viborg the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sonderjyske against 1.62 for Viborg. Sonderjyske's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.33 for Viborg.