First League · Regular Season - 3 · 2 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

The model makes it 57% Ludogorets, 26% draw, 17% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.58, Botev Vratsa 0.73.

Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

42%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 15%2-0 12%1-1 12%

Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa

  • 30 November 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 25 July 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 23 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaCup
  • 10 April 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsCup
  • 15 March 2025Ludogorets 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 29 September 2024Botev Vratsa 0–2 LudogoretsFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ludogorets against 0.73 for Botev Vratsa. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.53/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.58 for Botev Vratsa.