Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa First League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 2-1 Botev Vratsa.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Ludogorets, 26% draw, 17% Botev Vratsa — fair odds of 1.75, 3.85 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 57% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 39Hendrik BonmannG
- 2Joel AnderssonD
- 15Edvin KurtulusD
- 24Olivier VerdonD
- 42Simeon ShishkovD
- 20Aguibou CamaraM
- 18Ivajlo ChochevM
- 7Alberto SalidoF
- 14Petar StanićM
- 37Bernard TekpeteyM
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 55Idan NachmiasD
- 26Filip KaločM
- 25Emerson RodríguezM
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 1Sergio PadtG
- 3Anton NedyalkovD
- 22Mihail PolendakovD
- 17SonD
- 94Marin OrlinovG
- 4Ivan GoranovD
- 36Milen StoevD
- 88Lazar BoyanovD
- 3Sainey SanyangD
- 12Iliya YurukovM
- 8Antoan StoyanovM
- 97Vladislav NaydenovM
- 79Martin PetkovF
- 81Kassim HadjiM
- 9Daniel GenovM
- 6Abdula KichukovM
- 24Martin SmolenskiM
- 99Preslav BorukovF
- 10José GallegosM
- 17Samuil MechevM
- 23Lyuboslav StoyanovG
- 98Lyubomir VasilevG
- 11Martin AchkovD
- 2Miroslav TsonevM
Form going into Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa
Ludogorets
- D2-2Hapoel Tel Aviv30 July 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- L0-2away to Hapoel Tel Aviv23 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Botev Vratsa
- L1-2away to CSKA 194825 July 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa
- 2 August 2026Ludogorets 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 30 November 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 25 July 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 23 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaCup
- 10 April 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsCup
- 15 March 2025Ludogorets 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League