FC Thun vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: FC Thun 2-2 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% FC Thun, 26% draw, 44% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
Line-ups
- 25T. SpycherG
- 37L. DahlerD
- 54L. PassavantD
- 23M. BurkiD
- 18T. StrannegardD
- 30N. MaierF
- 8F. SaizM
- 13N. ZoukitM
- 21D. DerbaciM
- 80S. LengenF
- 9F. DursunF
- 1N. SteffenG
- 22D. WaltiG
- 5N. BurgyD
- 19J. BamertD
- 47F. FehrD
- 16J. RothM
- 70N. ReichmuthM
- 52A. IlicM
- 58A. MaaroufiM
- 1M. LisG
- 20R. GumnyD
- 27W. MonkaD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 43A. KozubalM
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 17A. SayyadmaneshM
- 77L. PalmaM
- 11D. HakansM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 35M. PruchniewskiG
- 31W. ObremskiG
- 59T. YegbeD
- 2J. PereiraD
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 53K. DelikatM
- 24F. JagielloM
- 10P. WalemarkM
- 56W. Szymczak
Form going into FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
FC Thun
- L0-7away to Lech Poznan20 August 2026
- L2-3away to Vikingur Reykjavik13 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- W3-0Vikingur Reykjavik6 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
Lech Poznan
- W7-0FC Thun20 August 2026
- W5-0away to KI Klaksvik14 August 2026
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Thun had three goals or more.
- FC Thun failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Thun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
FC Thun and Lech Poznan in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | Super League | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 10 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · UEFA Europa League
Head-to-head: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
- 20 August 2026Lech Poznan 7–0 FC ThunUEFA Europa League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: FC Thun and Lech Poznan
FC Thun
- B. Labeau3 goals
Lech Poznan
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.