FC Thun
vs
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League prediction
The model makes it 25% FC Thun, 22% draw, 53% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 4.00, 4.55 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.38, Lech Poznan 2.09.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Thun
- L2-4away to FC Basel 18939 August 2026
- L0-6BSC Young Boys1 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Luzern25 July 2026
Lech Poznan
- W3-0Piast Gliwice9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Thun | Super League | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Thun
No league goals recorded yet.
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.7 for Lech Poznan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Thun W-L-L; Lech Poznan D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for FC Thun and 2.09 for Lech Poznan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.63 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lech Poznan rate 0.86 and 1.16.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 370 correct results out of 769 settled predictions (48%), with 75 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lech Poznan the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC Thun against 2.09 for Lech Poznan. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.16 for Lech Poznan.